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Can Social Media Data Predict the Winner of the 2020 US Presidential Election? A Look at the Latest Trends

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can social media data predict the winner of the 2020 us presidential election a look at the latest trends

Can social media data predict the outcome of an election?

It’s a key question many have asked, and have worked to decipher from the troves of user data available. But thus far, there’s no definitive answer, especially when it comes to modern US politics.

Part of that is likely because of the celebrity status of US President Donald Trump, and the way in which he has used social media to connect with his constituents. Trump’s massive social media reach seems to somewhat skew the data – for example, previous academic research has suggested that sheer mention volume is the best indicator of a candidate’s performance, and likelihood of winning.

A study Dublin City University in 2011 found that tweet volume was “the single biggest predictive variable” in election results, a finding that was echoed in another study conducted by the Technical University of Munich

“The mere number of tweets reflects voter preferences and comes close to traditional election polls.”

Tweet volume, reflecting relative discussion and popularity, has been a consistent indicator of subsequent candidate performance – however, that wasn’t the case in the 2016 US Presidential election.

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In that instance, President Trump actually lost the overall popular vote, despite being far and away the most mentioned candidate on social platforms.

Twitter mention chart - 2016 election

President Trump was still able to claim victory through the Electoral College system, but the final results showed that even though Trump dominated the social media discussion, that did not translate into voting behavior. 

That, as noted, could indicate that Trump’s status shifts the scales in terms of predictive metrics, so we can’t say, for sure, what’s a great indicator of the probable election outcome. But, for context, here’s a look at some of the current data points, and how the two US Presidential candidates are tracking on key social metrics.

First off, on mentions – according to data from Facebook’s analytics dashboard CrowdTangle, Trump is trouncing Biden in overall engagement across The Social Network over the last three months.

Biden vs Trump - Facebook engagement

The shares here may be most important – while direct engagement with your posts is a good indicator of popularity and message resonance, shares are essentially message spread, and indicate that people are looking to pass on your messaging to other people in their own networks.

Reach is the key strength of The Social Network, and shares are a key element of this – and as you can see, on this front, Trump is seeing more than 5x more share activity on the platform.

Of course, Trump is also starting from a larger base – Trump has 32.5 million followers on Facebook, in comparison to Biden’s 3.7 million. That could skew the data, while it’s also not clear why people are sharing Trump’s messages.

Many of Trump’s comments, like his recent statement about the #BlackLivesMatter protests, have been shared in criticism, which again skews the data. But in a direct comparison, Trump is clearly leading the discussion on the most influential social network.

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As reported by The New York Times, Trump has also seen nearly twice as many likes and comments on Instagram as Biden over the past month, underlining his presence, in pure volume metrics.

But, at the same time, Biden has been gaining momentum. According to social media analytics company Socialbakers, Biden’s Twitter account has seen significant growth in 2020:

“In January 2020, Biden had 2,657,870 total interactions, just 8.2% of Trump’s monthly average of 60,518,463. After only 7 months, Biden peaked at 32,283,027 total interactions in August – a whopping 50.34% of Trump’s monthly average.”

Recent analysis from Conviva also found that Biden is now besting Trump in engagement per tweet.

Trump vs Biden - tweet engagement

So while Biden is not at the same level as Trump in terms of overall mentions or engagement, the data shows that he has gained, in relative terms – which, given Trump’s celebrity, could be indicative.

Maybe, it’s simply not possible to expect a candidate to be able to catch up to Trump on volume, given his social media dominance, and as such, relative gains could be the best indicator of performance. It’ll be impossible to say, of course, till after the poll.

The next step, then, is to try to glean insight into how each candidate is being mentioned.

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Using the Twitter analytics tool HappyGrumpy, a basic analysis suggests that sentiment around Trump’s tweets is 27% positive and 38% negative, compared to Biden who sees a 20% positive rate, and 40% negative. So Trump is seeing more positive responses, but the divide between the two is fairly close.

That’s somewhat similar to what researcher Kajal Yadav found in her analysis of sentiment around the two candidates, based on Twitter data, back in August.

Trump vs Biden sentiment

Yadav’s more specific methodology actually found the opposite – that Biden is seeing more positive replies, in comparison to negative reviews. But overall, the gap is fairly close, there’s nothing definitive here, and no clear winner in overall sentiment.

Yadav also notes the limitation in analysis due to sarcasm, which is not generally picked up by automated analytics systems:

“So, If a sentence contains a large number of positive words like “greatest”, “excellent” in a negative comment which is written in a sarcastic way. So, it will definitely classify it as a positive sentiment.”

That does make sentiment a difficult element.

That then leaves one other key factor to consider – audience growth, and who’s gaining more followers leading into the poll, which could suggest relative popularity with voters.

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In terms of Facebook Page Likes, Biden has seen a lot more growth in the last three months.

Facebook Page likes - Trump vs Biden

So again, a direct comparison on overall numbers is not going to provide much insight, given Trump’s pre-existing celebrity status. But in relative terms, Biden is gaining momentum.

That same trend is also reflected on Twitter – using the Wayback Machine, the screengrabs show that:

Trump vs Biden - Twitter audience growth

Volume-wise, in terms of engagement and audience, Trump is by far the leader. But the trends show that Biden is winning, on both fronts, in relative terms in the most recent period.

So, what does that mean in terms of an overall prediction? As noted, several past studies have shown that volume alone is the best predictor, but Trump’s status changes that, and may shift the results.

With this in mind, and knowing that a direct volume comparison is not effective, it could be that you need to look at recent growth in isolation, which shows that Biden is gaining significant momentum on Twitter engagement, Twitter followers, Facebook Likes. But Trump still dominates the space, and his huge, established social media presence gives him significant capacity to spread his messaging. 

Which is the best indicator of success? We won’t know till early next month, but these data trends could provide some new insight into the predictive capacity of social media for election results.

Socialmediatoday.com

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Snapchat Explores New Messaging Retention Feature: A Game-Changer or Risky Move?

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Snapchat Explores New Messaging Retention Feature: A Game-Changer or Risky Move?

In a recent announcement, Snapchat revealed a groundbreaking update that challenges its traditional design ethos. The platform is experimenting with an option that allows users to defy the 24-hour auto-delete rule, a feature synonymous with Snapchat’s ephemeral messaging model.

The proposed change aims to introduce a “Never delete” option in messaging retention settings, aligning Snapchat more closely with conventional messaging apps. While this move may blur Snapchat’s distinctive selling point, Snap appears convinced of its necessity.

According to Snap, the decision stems from user feedback and a commitment to innovation based on user needs. The company aims to provide greater flexibility and control over conversations, catering to the preferences of its community.

Currently undergoing trials in select markets, the new feature empowers users to adjust retention settings on a conversation-by-conversation basis. Flexibility remains paramount, with participants able to modify settings within chats and receive in-chat notifications to ensure transparency.

Snapchat underscores that the default auto-delete feature will persist, reinforcing its design philosophy centered on ephemerality. However, with the app gaining traction as a primary messaging platform, the option offers users a means to preserve longer chat histories.

The update marks a pivotal moment for Snapchat, renowned for its disappearing message premise, especially popular among younger demographics. Retaining this focus has been pivotal to Snapchat’s identity, but the shift suggests a broader strategy aimed at diversifying its user base.

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This strategy may appeal particularly to older demographics, potentially extending Snapchat’s relevance as users age. By emulating features of conventional messaging platforms, Snapchat seeks to enhance its appeal and broaden its reach.

Yet, the introduction of message retention poses questions about Snapchat’s uniqueness. While addressing user demands, the risk of diluting Snapchat’s distinctiveness looms large.

As Snapchat ventures into uncharted territory, the outcome of this experiment remains uncertain. Will message retention propel Snapchat to new heights, or will it compromise the platform’s uniqueness?

Only time will tell.

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Catering to specific audience boosts your business, says accountant turned coach

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Catering to specific audience boosts your business, says accountant turned coach

While it is tempting to try to appeal to a broad audience, the founder of alcohol-free coaching service Just the Tonic, Sandra Parker, believes the best thing you can do for your business is focus on your niche. Here’s how she did just that.

When running a business, reaching out to as many clients as possible can be tempting. But it also risks making your marketing “too generic,” warns Sandra Parker, the founder of Just The Tonic Coaching.

“From the very start of my business, I knew exactly who I could help and who I couldn’t,” Parker told My Biggest Lessons.

Parker struggled with alcohol dependence as a young professional. Today, her business targets high-achieving individuals who face challenges similar to those she had early in her career.

“I understand their frustrations, I understand their fears, and I understand their coping mechanisms and the stories they’re telling themselves,” Parker said. “Because of that, I’m able to market very effectively, to speak in a language that they understand, and am able to reach them.” 

“I believe that it’s really important that you know exactly who your customer or your client is, and you target them, and you resist the temptation to make your marketing too generic to try and reach everyone,” she explained.

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“If you speak specifically to your target clients, you will reach them, and I believe that’s the way that you’re going to be more successful.

Watch the video for more of Sandra Parker’s biggest lessons.

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Instagram Tests Live-Stream Games to Enhance Engagement

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Instagram Tests Live-Stream Games to Enhance Engagement

Instagram’s testing out some new options to help spice up your live-streams in the app, with some live broadcasters now able to select a game that they can play with viewers in-stream.

As you can see in these example screens, posted by Ahmed Ghanem, some creators now have the option to play either “This or That”, a question and answer prompt that you can share with your viewers, or “Trivia”, to generate more engagement within your IG live-streams.

That could be a simple way to spark more conversation and interaction, which could then lead into further engagement opportunities from your live audience.

Meta’s been exploring more ways to make live-streaming a bigger consideration for IG creators, with a view to live-streams potentially catching on with more users.

That includes the gradual expansion of its “Stars” live-stream donation program, giving more creators in more regions a means to accept donations from live-stream viewers, while back in December, Instagram also added some new options to make it easier to go live using third-party tools via desktop PCs.

Live streaming has been a major shift in China, where shopping live-streams, in particular, have led to massive opportunities for streaming platforms. They haven’t caught on in the same way in Western regions, but as TikTok and YouTube look to push live-stream adoption, there is still a chance that they will become a much bigger element in future.

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Which is why IG is also trying to stay in touch, and add more ways for its creators to engage via streams. Live-stream games is another element within this, which could make this a better community-building, and potentially sales-driving option.

We’ve asked Instagram for more information on this test, and we’ll update this post if/when we hear back.

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