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Musk Says Twitter Deal ‘On Hold’ Pending More Data on the Actual Number of Fake Accounts in the App

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The action continues in the Elon Musk Twitter takeover push.

Early this morning, via, of course, a tweet, Musk announced that his proposed purchase of the company had been temporarily put on hold pending additional details from Twitter to support its claim that spam and fake accounts represent less than 5% of its users.

Musk later tweeted that he’s:

But of course, many have speculated what this now means, and whether it could be an attempt by Musk to back out of the deal entirely.

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Because the idea that just 5% of Twitter active user base are bots seems fanciful, especially given that Twitter has been reporting this exact percentage of fake accounts since its initial public offering, back in 2013.

Because in reality, Twitter doesn’t know. In its own reporting to the SEC, Twitter states that:

“There are a number of false or spam accounts in existence on our platform. We have performed an internal review of a sample of accounts and estimate that the average of false or spam accounts during the fourth quarter of 2021 represented fewer than 5% of our mDAU during the quarter. The false or spam accounts for a period represents the average of false or spam accounts in the samples during each monthly analysis period during the quarter.”

So Twitter makes this assessment based on a sample of its 229 million users, which, conveniently, has indicated that exactly 5% of its accounts are fake, every single time that it’s been run.

That also doesn’t explain why Twitter hasn’t removed the fakes that it’s detected each time – unless, of course, it has removed them, then a whole new 5% of accounts, fluctuating in actual number based on the platform’s overall growth, have cropped up in their place.

It seems questionable, right? Well, Twitter also notes that it could be wrong.

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“In making this determination, we applied significant judgment, so our estimation of false or spam accounts may not accurately represent the actual number of such accounts, and the actual number of false or spam accounts could be higher than we have estimated.”

Twitter further states that it’s continually improving its capacity to detect and remove fake accounts – though again, even with these improvements, the number of total fakes has remained static at 5%.

There’s also this:

“After we determine an account is spam, malicious automation, or fake, we stop counting it in our mDAU, or other related metrics.”

So, you remove it from the platform entirely, or just stop counting it?

“We also treat multiple accounts held by a single person or organization as multiple mDAU because we permit people and organizations to have more than one account.”

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Which, as an aside, is another potentially misleading calculation within Twitter’s numbers, though all social media apps use similar counting methods.

So how many fake accounts does Twitter have actually?

Various independent researchers have tried to estimate this. Back in 2017, a joint study conducted by researchers from the University of Southern California and Indiana University found that around 15% of Twitter’s user base were bots rather than people. In 2018, Twitter suspended or removed more than 70 million accounts which it had determined were fake. At that time, Twitter had 330 million monthly active users, which would suggest that around 20% of its user count were not actual, real people.

Independent discoveries of bot networks also belie Twitter’s 5% claim. In the wake of the 2016 US Election, for example, researchers uncovered “huge, inter-connected Twitter bot networks” seeking to influence political discussion, with the largest incorporating some 500,000 fake accounts. In 2019, Wired reported that bot profiles were still dominating political news streams, with bot profiles contributing up to 60% of tweet activity around some events.

On balance, I would say that Twitter’s 5% claim is probably not correct.

But does that mean that Musk can pull out of the Twitter deal entirely, if he can prove that Twitter has misrepresented this element?

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Okay, first off, as noted, Musk has said that he’s still committed to the deal and is not looking for a way out. Some have questioned the truth of this, but on face value, we have to assume that Musk is simply looking for clarification, rather than an escape route.

If Musk did try to withdraw from his Twitter offer because its fake account stats were flawed, he’d still have a hard time, especially considering that Musk waived doing detailed due diligence on Twitter’s business, in order to reach an agreement faster.

As reported by The Wall Street Journal

“Because Mr. Musk waived doing detailed due diligence on the deal, it could make it more difficult for him to back out over something like a discrepancy in the number of spam accounts. If he tries to, the company could attempt to force him to complete the deal under a legal protection called “specific performance,” though that maneuver is rarely successful in practice.

So it probably wouldn’t be enough for Musk to back out – but then again, some have suggested that this may have been Musk’s plan all along, to wriggle out of his proposed Twitter takeover, for varying reason.

That seems conspiracy-esque, but honestly, who knows what goes on in Musk’s head.

One thing’s for sure, we’re all learning a lot more about hostile takeovers, and securities laws relating to such efforts.

If Musk did seek to skip out on his Twitter takeover push, it wouldn’t be straightforward, with various regulatory processes in place to ensure such doesn’t happen, and various penalties that could be triggered as a result.

But maybe, as some have suggested, Musk could be using this as a negotiating tactic, in order to reduce his offer price for the app. Twitter shares are currently trading at well below Musk’s offer price, and if he could point to flaws in the company’s metrics, indicating bad faith on their part, that may give Musk more leverage to finesse the deal a little.

Each of these suggestions is effectively a ‘it’s possible, but…’ scenario, where there are various complexities built-in, which will most likely, eventually, see Musk becoming the owner of the company.

How many actual users Musk will have, and what that will mean for his growth projections, remains to be seen. And if his ambitious growth targets are now not possible, due to flawed data from Twitter, what does that mean for his financing, and securing capital from partners?

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That’s likely what Musk is pointing to here – if Twitter’s not being honest in its calculations, Musk can’t properly estimate future potential, which limits his capacity to accurately value the company and attract outside investment for his bid.

So he should be able to lower it.

If I had to guess, I would say that this is Musk’s angle with this latest push, but it’ll also be interesting to see if we end up getting any real insight into Twitter’s bot problem, and what the actual figures on fake profiles could be.

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Snapchat Explores New Messaging Retention Feature: A Game-Changer or Risky Move?

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Snapchat Explores New Messaging Retention Feature: A Game-Changer or Risky Move?

In a recent announcement, Snapchat revealed a groundbreaking update that challenges its traditional design ethos. The platform is experimenting with an option that allows users to defy the 24-hour auto-delete rule, a feature synonymous with Snapchat’s ephemeral messaging model.

The proposed change aims to introduce a “Never delete” option in messaging retention settings, aligning Snapchat more closely with conventional messaging apps. While this move may blur Snapchat’s distinctive selling point, Snap appears convinced of its necessity.

According to Snap, the decision stems from user feedback and a commitment to innovation based on user needs. The company aims to provide greater flexibility and control over conversations, catering to the preferences of its community.

Currently undergoing trials in select markets, the new feature empowers users to adjust retention settings on a conversation-by-conversation basis. Flexibility remains paramount, with participants able to modify settings within chats and receive in-chat notifications to ensure transparency.

Snapchat underscores that the default auto-delete feature will persist, reinforcing its design philosophy centered on ephemerality. However, with the app gaining traction as a primary messaging platform, the option offers users a means to preserve longer chat histories.

The update marks a pivotal moment for Snapchat, renowned for its disappearing message premise, especially popular among younger demographics. Retaining this focus has been pivotal to Snapchat’s identity, but the shift suggests a broader strategy aimed at diversifying its user base.

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This strategy may appeal particularly to older demographics, potentially extending Snapchat’s relevance as users age. By emulating features of conventional messaging platforms, Snapchat seeks to enhance its appeal and broaden its reach.

Yet, the introduction of message retention poses questions about Snapchat’s uniqueness. While addressing user demands, the risk of diluting Snapchat’s distinctiveness looms large.

As Snapchat ventures into uncharted territory, the outcome of this experiment remains uncertain. Will message retention propel Snapchat to new heights, or will it compromise the platform’s uniqueness?

Only time will tell.

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Catering to specific audience boosts your business, says accountant turned coach

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Catering to specific audience boosts your business, says accountant turned coach

While it is tempting to try to appeal to a broad audience, the founder of alcohol-free coaching service Just the Tonic, Sandra Parker, believes the best thing you can do for your business is focus on your niche. Here’s how she did just that.

When running a business, reaching out to as many clients as possible can be tempting. But it also risks making your marketing “too generic,” warns Sandra Parker, the founder of Just The Tonic Coaching.

“From the very start of my business, I knew exactly who I could help and who I couldn’t,” Parker told My Biggest Lessons.

Parker struggled with alcohol dependence as a young professional. Today, her business targets high-achieving individuals who face challenges similar to those she had early in her career.

“I understand their frustrations, I understand their fears, and I understand their coping mechanisms and the stories they’re telling themselves,” Parker said. “Because of that, I’m able to market very effectively, to speak in a language that they understand, and am able to reach them.” 

“I believe that it’s really important that you know exactly who your customer or your client is, and you target them, and you resist the temptation to make your marketing too generic to try and reach everyone,” she explained.

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“If you speak specifically to your target clients, you will reach them, and I believe that’s the way that you’re going to be more successful.

Watch the video for more of Sandra Parker’s biggest lessons.

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Instagram Tests Live-Stream Games to Enhance Engagement

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Instagram Tests Live-Stream Games to Enhance Engagement

Instagram’s testing out some new options to help spice up your live-streams in the app, with some live broadcasters now able to select a game that they can play with viewers in-stream.

As you can see in these example screens, posted by Ahmed Ghanem, some creators now have the option to play either “This or That”, a question and answer prompt that you can share with your viewers, or “Trivia”, to generate more engagement within your IG live-streams.

That could be a simple way to spark more conversation and interaction, which could then lead into further engagement opportunities from your live audience.

Meta’s been exploring more ways to make live-streaming a bigger consideration for IG creators, with a view to live-streams potentially catching on with more users.

That includes the gradual expansion of its “Stars” live-stream donation program, giving more creators in more regions a means to accept donations from live-stream viewers, while back in December, Instagram also added some new options to make it easier to go live using third-party tools via desktop PCs.

Live streaming has been a major shift in China, where shopping live-streams, in particular, have led to massive opportunities for streaming platforms. They haven’t caught on in the same way in Western regions, but as TikTok and YouTube look to push live-stream adoption, there is still a chance that they will become a much bigger element in future.

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Which is why IG is also trying to stay in touch, and add more ways for its creators to engage via streams. Live-stream games is another element within this, which could make this a better community-building, and potentially sales-driving option.

We’ve asked Instagram for more information on this test, and we’ll update this post if/when we hear back.

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