Twilio Q4 Earnings Preview: Buy Ahead Of A Substantial Rebound
It’s a big year for tech rebounds, but we have to be extra vigilant that the stocks we’re investing in also have fundamental firepower to justify these gains. So far earnings season is playing out well for most companies, but post-earnings reactions have generally been very volatile – with companies jumping double-digits (which has been more common), or sliding dramatically on weakened profitability or lowered expectations (like Lyft).
Twilio (NYSE:TWLO), in my view, is well-positioned for an earnings rally. Already up more than 20% so far, I think Twilio has a lot of lost ground to reclaim and good news in Q4 could be the catalyst to spark the fire:
I remain very bullish on Twilio and recommend adding the stock ahead of earnings. Twilio next reports on Wednesday, February 15 – and I think we could be in for substantial gains after the report.
Positive read-through from other internet companies
The first topic we should discuss: as a reminder for investors who are newer to Twilio, the company primarily drives growth via a “land and expand” business model. Twilio’s software is entirely usage-based: meaning every single time somebody uses the Twilio API to send an internet-powered text or voice call, Twilio gets paid.
Yes, like many other software companies, Twilio has seen the macroeconomy drag its sales cycles. New deals are taking longer to close. But customers who are already installed on the platform are presumably still using their applications in the same way and at the same pace, so Twilio’s “expansion” growth is not at risk.
The chart below shows Twilio’s most recent trend of dollar-based net retention rates; so far, Twilio customers have been trending toward a 20%+ net expansion:
Now let’s turn to reports from some of Twilio’s key customers. Now, Twilio has reached a far more diversified customer base than immediately after its IPO, when Uber (UBER) and Facebook (META) made up a huge chunk of revenue. Even though these companies are a smaller chunk of revenue today, they still provide directional color on how usage trends might play out.
Let’s start with Meta, which reported earnings earlier in February. DAUs rose 4% y/y to 2.00 billion, including a 2-million user sequential increase in users in the US and Canada, which are the highest revenue-generating region.
Moreover, Facebook’s ratio of DAUs to MAUs reached a record 67.5%, up from 67.1% in Q3 and 66.2% in the year-ago Q4. On top of this, Meta reported that ad impressions served grew 23% y/y in the fourth quarter.
All of this data suggests that activity/usage is up across the core Facebook family of apps, and Twilio – which powers the Messenger function – should benefit from this increase in usage.
Uber also has positive read-through. Gross bookings in the mobility/rideshare segment grew 37% y/y (lapping against a difficult post-COVID opening comp last year as well):
Needless to say, the more people are hailing Uber rides, the more opportunities there are for them to contact their Uber drivers through voice or text – which use the Twilio API, and for which Twilio gets paid per instance.
Focus on cost-cutting
Note as well that just two days before its earnings print, Twilio announced that it would be laying off 1,500 workers, representing a huge 17% chunk of its overall workforce.
On top of this, the company is shrinking its real estate portfolio, which will further reduce its opex run rates.
Already as of Q3, Twilio was nearing a single-digit pro forma operating margin loss. Assuming consistent revenue performance (which will hopefully turn up better than expectations, due to the positive read-through from other internet ecosystem companies), these cost-cuts should help Twilio push above breakeven from a pro forma standpoint.
Twilio is, above all, a company that relies on economies of scale. In particular, it relies on its “land and expand” motion to drive increased usage from its existing install base. If the company can keep up its trend of 120%+ net expansion rates (which activity readings from other internet companies seem to be supporting), on top of a lower expense base, 2023 can really be the year where Twilio’s profitability shines.
Valuation and key takeaways
At current share prices near $62 (factoring in the lift in the stock after Twilio announced its new layoffs), Twilio trades at a market cap of $11.40 billion. After we net off the $4.21 billion of cash and $987 million of debt on the company’s most recent balance sheet, Twilio’s resulting enterprise value is $8.18 billion.
Meanwhile, for the upcoming fiscal year FY23, Wall Street analysts are expecting Twilio to generate $4.43 billion in revenue, up 17% y/y (data from Yahoo Finance). This puts Twilio’s valuation at just 1.8x EV/FY23 revenue.
To me, this valuation (especially when compared to double-digit multiples at Twilio’s peak during the pandemic) signifies plenty of upside opportunity, even after this year’s substantial gains to date. In my opinion, even a whiff of good news during the Q4 earnings release has the potential to send Twilio roaring higher.
Take advantage of current low prices to buy Twilio ahead of a more substantial rebound.
Facebook Faces Yet Another Outage: Platform Encounters Technical Issues Again
Uppdated: It seems that today’s issues with Facebook haven’t affected as many users as the last time. A smaller group of people appears to be impacted this time around, which is a relief compared to the larger incident before. Nevertheless, it’s still frustrating for those affected, and hopefully, the issues will be resolved soon by the Facebook team.
Facebook had another problem today (March 20, 2024). According to Downdetector, a website that shows when other websites are not working, many people had trouble using Facebook.
This isn’t the first time Facebook has had issues. Just a little while ago, there was another problem that stopped people from using the site. Today, when people tried to use Facebook, it didn’t work like it should. People couldn’t see their friends’ posts, and sometimes the website wouldn’t even load.
Downdetector, which watches out for problems on websites, showed that lots of people were having trouble with Facebook. People from all over the world said they couldn’t use the site, and they were not happy about it.
When websites like Facebook have problems, it affects a lot of people. It’s not just about not being able to see posts or chat with friends. It can also impact businesses that use Facebook to reach customers.
Since Facebook owns Messenger and Instagram, the problems with Facebook also meant that people had trouble using these apps. It made the situation even more frustrating for many users, who rely on these apps to stay connected with others.
During this recent problem, one thing is obvious: the internet is always changing, and even big websites like Facebook can have problems. While people wait for Facebook to fix the issue, it shows us how easily things online can go wrong. It’s a good reminder that we should have backup plans for staying connected online, just in case something like this happens again.
Christian family goes in hiding after being cleared of blasphemy
LAHORE, Pakistan — A court in Pakistan granted bail to a Christian falsely charged with blasphemy, but he and his family have separated and gone into hiding amid threats to their lives, sources said.
Haroon Shahzad, 45, was released from Sargodha District Jail on Nov. 15, said his attorney, Aneeqa Maria. Shahzad was charged with blasphemy on June 30 after posting Bible verses on Facebook that infuriated Muslims, causing dozens of Christian families in Chak 49 Shumaali, near Sargodha in Punjab Province, to flee their homes.
Lahore High Court Judge Ali Baqir Najfi granted bail on Nov. 6, but the decision and his release on Nov. 15 were not made public until now due to security fears for his life, Maria said.
Shahzad told Morning Star News by telephone from an undisclosed location that the false accusation has changed his family’s lives forever.
“My family has been on the run from the time I was implicated in this false charge and arrested by the police under mob pressure,” Shahzad told Morning Star News. “My eldest daughter had just started her second year in college, but it’s been more than four months now that she hasn’t been able to return to her institution. My other children are also unable to resume their education as my family is compelled to change their location after 15-20 days as a security precaution.”
Though he was not tortured during incarceration, he said, the pain of being away from his family and thinking about their well-being and safety gave him countless sleepless nights.
“All of this is due to the fact that the complainant, Imran Ladhar, has widely shared my photo on social media and declared me liable for death for alleged blasphemy,” he said in a choked voice. “As soon as Ladhar heard about my bail, he and his accomplices started gathering people in the village and incited them against me and my family. He’s trying his best to ensure that we are never able to go back to the village.”
Shahzad has met with his family only once since his release on bail, and they are unable to return to their village in the foreseeable future, he said.
“We are not together,” he told Morning Star News. “They are living at a relative’s house while I’m taking refuge elsewhere. I don’t know when this agonizing situation will come to an end.”
The Christian said the complainant, said to be a member of Islamist extremist party Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan and also allegedly connected with banned terrorist group Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, filed the charge because of a grudge. Shahzad said he and his family had obtained valuable government land and allotted it for construction of a church building, and Ladhar and others had filed multiple cases against the allotment and lost all of them after a four-year legal battle.
“Another probable reason for Ladhar’s jealousy could be that we were financially better off than most Christian families of the village,” he said. “I was running a successful paint business in Sargodha city, but that too has shut down due to this case.”
Regarding the social media post, Shahzad said he had no intention of hurting Muslim sentiments by sharing the biblical verse on his Facebook page.
“I posted the verse a week before Eid Al Adha [Feast of the Sacrifice] but I had no idea that it would be used to target me and my family,” he said. “In fact, when I came to know that Ladhar was provoking the villagers against me, I deleted the post and decided to meet the village elders to explain my position.”
The village elders were already influenced by Ladhar and refused to listen to him, Shahzad said.
“I was left with no option but to flee the village when I heard that Ladhar was amassing a mob to attack me,” he said.
Shahzad pleaded with government authorities for justice, saying he should not be punished for sharing a verse from the Bible that in no way constituted blasphemy.
Similar to other cases
Shahzad’s attorney, Maria, told Morning Star News that events in Shahzad’s case were similar to other blasphemy cases filed against Christians.
“Defective investigation, mala fide on the part of the police and complainant, violent protests against the accused persons and threats to them and their families, forcing their displacement from their ancestral areas, have become hallmarks of all blasphemy allegations in Pakistan,” said Maria, head of The Voice Society, a Christian paralegal organization.
She said that the case filed against Shahzad was gross violation of Section 196 of the Criminal Procedure Code (CrPC), which states that police cannot register a case under the Section 295-A blasphemy statute against a private citizen without the approval of the provincial government or federal agencies.
Maria added that Shahzad and his family have continued to suffer even though there was no evidence of blasphemy.
“The social stigma attached with a blasphemy accusation will likely have a long-lasting impact on their lives, whereas his accuser, Imran Ladhar, would not have to face any consequence of his false accusation,” she said.
The judge who granted bail noted that Shahzad was charged with blasphemy under Section 295-A, which is a non-cognizable offense, and Section 298, which is bailable. The judge also noted that police had not submitted the forensic report of Shahzad’s cell phone and said evidence was required to prove that the social media was blasphemous, according to Maria.
Bail was set at 100,000 Pakistani rupees (US $350) and two personal sureties, and the judge ordered police to further investigate, she said.
Shahzad, a paint contractor, on June 29 posted on his Facebook page 1 Cor. 10:18-21 regarding food sacrificed to idols, as Muslims were beginning the four-day festival of Eid al-Adha, which involves slaughtering an animal and sharing the meat.
A Muslim villager took a screenshot of the post, sent it to local social media groups and accused Shahzad of likening Muslims to pagans and disrespecting the Abrahamic tradition of animal sacrifice.
Though Shahzad made no comment in the post, inflammatory or otherwise, the situation became tense after Friday prayers when announcements were made from mosque loudspeakers telling people to gather for a protest, family sources previously told Morning Star News.
Fearing violence as mobs grew in the village, most Christian families fled their homes, leaving everything behind.
In a bid to restore order, the police registered a case against Shahzad under Sections 295-A and 298. Section 295-A relates to “deliberate and malicious acts intended to outrage religious feelings of any class by insulting its religion or religious beliefs” and is punishable with imprisonment of up to 10 years and fine, or both. Section 298 prescribes up to one year in prison and a fine, or both, for hurting religious sentiments.
Pakistan ranked seventh on Open Doors’ 2023 World Watch List of the most difficult places to be a Christian, up from eighth the previous year.
Morning Star News is the only independent news service focusing exclusively on the persecution of Christians. The nonprofit’s mission is to provide complete, reliable, even-handed news in order to empower those in the free world to help persecuted Christians, and to encourage persecuted Christians by informing them that they are not alone in their suffering.
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