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Path To Next Generation Search

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Path To Next Generation Search

Google announced a breakthrough in the effort to create an AI architecture that can handle millions of different tasks, including complex learning and reasoning. The new system is called the Pathways Language Model, referred to as PaLM.

PaLM is able to outperform the current state of the current AI state of the art as well as beat humans in the language and reasoning tests.

But the researchers also point out that they cannot shake the limitations inherent in large-scale languages models that can unintentionally result in negative ethical outcomes.

Background Information

The next few sections are background information that clarify what this algorithm is about.

Few-Shot Learning

Few-shot learning is the next stage of learning that is moving beyond deep learning.

Google Brain researcher, Hugo Larochelle (@hugo_larochelle) said in a presentation titled, Generalizing from Few Examples with Meta-Learning (video) explained that with deep learning, the problem is that they had to collect a vast amount of data that required significant amount of human labor.

He pointed out that deep learning will likely not be the path toward an AI that can solve many tasks because with deep learning, each task requires millions of examples from which to learn from for each ability that an AI learns.

Larochelle explains:

“…the idea is that we will try to attack this problem very directly, this problem of few-shot learning, which is this problem of generalizing from little amounts of data.

…the main idea in what I’ll present is that instead of trying to define what that learning algorithm is by N and use our intuition as to what is the right algorithm for doing few-shot learning, but actually try to learn that algorithm in an end-to-end way.

And that’s why we call it learning to learn or I like to call it, meta learning.”

The goal with the few-shot approach is to approximate how humans learn different things and can apply the different bits of knowledge together in order to solve new problems that have never before been encountered.

The advantage then is a machine that can leverage all of the knowledge that it has to solve new problems.

In the case of PaLM, an example of this capability is its ability to explain a joke that it has never encountered before.

Pathways AI

In October 2021 Google published an article laying out the goals for a new AI architecture called Pathways.

Pathways represented a new chapter in the ongoing progress in developing AI systems.

The usual approach was to create algorithms that were trained to do specific things very well.

The Pathways approach is to create a single AI model that can solve all of the problems by learning how to solve them, in that way avoiding the less efficient way of training thousands of algorithms to complete thousands of different tasks.

According to the Pathways document:

“Instead, we’d like to train one model that can not only handle many separate tasks, but also draw upon and combine its existing skills to learn new tasks faster and more effectively.

That way what a model learns by training on one task – say, learning how aerial images can predict the elevation of a landscape – could help it learn another task — say, predicting how flood waters will flow through that terrain.”

Pathways defined Google’s path forward for taking AI to the next level to close the gap between machine learning and human learning.

Google’s newest model, called Pathways Language Model (PaLM), is this next step and according to this new research paper, PaLM represents a significant progress in the field of AI.

What Makes Google PaLM Notable

PaLM scales the few-shot learning process.

According to the research paper:

“Large language models have been shown to achieve remarkable performance across a variety of natural language tasks using few-shot learning, which drastically reduces the number of task-specific training examples needed to adapt the model to a particular application.

To further our understanding of the impact of scale on few-shot learning, we trained a 540-billion parameter, densely activated, Transformer language model, which we call Pathways Language Model (PaLM).”

There are many research papers published that describe algorithms that don’t perform better than the current state of the art or only achieve an incremental improvement.

That’s not the case with PaLM. The researchers claim significant improvements over the current best models and even outperforms human benchmarks.

That level of success is what makes this new algorithm notable.

The researchers write:

“We demonstrate continued benefits of scaling by achieving state-ofthe-art few-shot learning results on hundreds of language understanding and generation benchmarks.

On a number of these tasks, PaLM 540B achieves breakthrough performance, outperforming the fine tuned state of-the-art on a suite of multi-step reasoning tasks, and outperforming average human performance on the recently released BIG-bench benchmark.

A significant number of BIG-bench tasks showed discontinuous improvements from model scale, meaning that performance steeply increased as we scaled to our largest model.”

PaLM outperforms the state of the art in English natural language processing tasks and that makes PaLM important and notable.

On a collaborative benchmark called BIG-bench consisting of over 150 tasks (related to reasoning, translation, question answering), PaLM outperformed the state of the art but there were areas where it did not do as well.

Worthy of noting is that human performance outscored PaLM on 35% of the tasks, particularly mathematical related tasks (See section 6.2 BIG-bench of the research paper, page 17).

PaLM was better at translating another language into English than translating English to other languages. The researchers stated that this is a common problem that could be solved by prioritizing more multilingual data.

Nevertheless, PaLM pretty much outperformed other language models and humans across the board.

Ability to Reason

Of particular note was it’s performance with arithmetic and commonsense reasoning tasks.

Example of an arithmetic task:

Question:
Roger has 5 tennis balls. He buys 2 more cans of tennis balls. Each can has 3 tennis balls. How many tennis balls does he have now?

Answer:
The answer is 11.

Example of commonsense reasoning:

Question:
Sean was in a rush to get home, but the light turned yellow and he was forced to do what?
Answer Choices: (a) take time (b) dawdle (c) go slowly (d) ocean (e) slow down

Answer:
The answer is (e) slow down.

Generating Explanations

Another extraordinary example of how advanced PaLM is in tests of generating explanations.

Here’s how the research paper explains it:

“The goal of this section is to showcase the capabilities of PaLM with regards to explanatory language generation, for prompts that require a complex combination of logical inference chaining, world knowledge, abstract language understanding, and lexicographic language understanding (e.g., puns).”

Explanations of Jokes

Here is an example of the language model explaining a joke:

Joke:
I was going to fly to visit my family on April 6th. My mom said “Oh great, your step dad’s poetry reading is that night!”

So now I’m flying in on April 7th.

Model Explanation:
The joke is that the speaker’s mother is trying to get them to go to their step dad’s poetry reading, but the speaker doesn’t want to go, so they are changing their flight to the day after the poetry reading.

Inference Chaining

Here’s an example of inference chaining, where multiple concepts and entities need to be correctly joined and considered to create an answer.

Input:
Guido was writing a Python program. He keeps getting confused by variable scope and looking it up on StackOverflow.

Is it possible that the Guido in the prompt refers to Guido van Rossum?

Model Output:
Guido van Rossum is the creator of Python. He would not need to look up variable scope on StackOverflow. The answer is “no”.”

Here is one more example:

Input:
Jennifer looked out her window and sees a really cool cloud below her. She unbuckles her seatbelt and heads to the bathroom. Is Jennifer probably traveling more than 300 miles per hour relative to the earth?

Model Output:
300 miles per hour is about 480 km/h. This is about the speed of a commercial airplane. Clouds are usually below airplanes, so Jennifer is probably on an airplane.

The answer is “yes”.”

Next Generation Search Engine?

The above example of the ability of PaLM for complex reasoning demonstrates how a next generation search engine may be able to answer complex answers utilizing knowledge from the Internet and other sources.

Achieving an AI architecture that can produce answers that reflect the world around us is one of the stated goals of Google Pathways and PaLM is a step in that direction.

However, the authors of the research emphasized that PaLM is not the final word on AI and search. They were explicit in stating that PaLM is a first step toward the next kind of search engine that Pathways envisions.

Before we proceed further, there are two words, jargon so to speak, that are important to understand in order to get what PaLM is about.

  • Modalities
  • Generalization

The word “modalities” is a reference to how things are experienced or the state in which they exist, like text that is read, images that are seen, things that are listened to.

The word “generalization” in the context of machine learning is about the ability of a language model to solve tasks that it hasn’t previously been trained on.

The researchers noted:

“PaLM is only the first step in our vision towards establishing Pathways as the future of ML scaling at Google and beyond.

We believe that PaLM demonstrates a strong foundation in our ultimate goal of developing a large-scale, modularized system that will have broad generalization capabilities across multiple modalities.”

Real-World Risks and Ethical Considerations

Something different about this research paper is that the researchers warn about ethical considerations.

They state that large-scale language models trained on web data absorb many of the “toxic” stereotypes and social disparities that are spread on the web and they state that PaLM is not resistant to those unwanted influences.

The research paper cites a research paper from 2021 that explores how large-scale language models can promote the following harm:

  1. Discrimination, Exclusion and Toxicity
  2. Information Hazards
  3. Misinformation Harms
  4. Malicious Uses
  5. Human-Computer Interaction Harms
  6. Automation, Access, and Environmental Harms

Lastly, the researchers noted that PaLM does indeed reflect toxic social stereotypes and makes clear that filtering out these biases are challenging.

The PaLM researchers explain:

“Our analysis reveals that our training data, and consequently PaLM, do reflect various social stereotypes and toxicity associations around identity terms.

Removing these associations, however, is non-trivial… Future work should look into effectively tackling such undesirable biases in data, and their influence on model behavior.

Meanwhile, any real-world use of PaLM for downstream tasks should perform further contextualized fairness evaluations to assess the potential harms and introduce appropriate mitigation and protections.”

PaLM can be viewed as a peek into what the next generation of search will look like. PaLM makes extraordinary claims to besting the state of the art but the researchers also state that there is still more work to do, including finding a way to mitigate the harmful spread of misinformation, toxic stereotypes and other unwanted results.

Citation

Read Google’s AI Blog Article About PaLM

Pathways Language Model (PaLM): Scaling to 540 Billion Parameters for Breakthrough Performance

Read the Google Research Paper on PaLM

PaLM: Scaling Language Modeling with Pathways (PDF)




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State Of Marketing Data Standards In The AI Era [Webinar]

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State Of Marketing Data Standards In The AI Era [Webinar]

Claravine and Advertiser Perceptions surveyed 140 marketers and agencies to better understand the impact of data standards on marketing data, and they’re ready to present their findings.

Want to learn how you can mitigate privacy risks and boost ROI through data standards?

Watch this on-demand webinar and learn how companies are addressing new privacy laws, taking advantage of AI, and organizing their data to better capture the campaign data they need, as well as how you can implement these findings in your campaigns.

In this webinar, you will:

  • Gain a better understanding of how your marketing data management compares to enterprise advertisers.
  • Get an overview of the current state of data standards and analytics, and how marketers are managing risk while improving the ROI of their programs.
  • Walk away with tactics and best practices that you can use to improve your marketing data now.

Chris Comstock, Chief Growth Officer at Claravine, will show you the marketing data trends of top advertisers and the potential pitfalls that come with poor data standards.

Learn the key ways to level up your data strategy to pinpoint campaign success.

View the slides below or check out the full webinar for all the details.

Join Us For Our Next Webinar!

SaaS Marketing: Expert Paid Media Tips Backed By $150M In Ad Spend

Join us and learn a unique methodology for growth that has driven massive revenue at a lower cost for hundreds of SaaS brands. We’ll dive into case studies backed by real data from over $150 million in SaaS ad spend per year.

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GPT Store Set To Launch In 2024 After ‘Unexpected’ Delays

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GPT Store Set To Launch In 2024 After 'Unexpected' Delays

OpenAI shares its plans for the GPT Store, enhancements to GPT Builder tools, privacy improvements, and updates coming to ChatGPT.

  • OpenAI has scheduled the launch of the GPT Store for early next year, aligning with its ongoing commitment to developing advanced AI technologies.
  • The GPT Builder tools have received substantial updates, including a more intuitive configuration interface and improved file handling capabilities.
  • Anticipation builds for upcoming updates to ChatGPT, highlighting OpenAI’s responsiveness to community feedback and dedication to AI innovation.

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96.55% of Content Gets No Traffic From Google. Here’s How to Be in the Other 3.45% [New Research for 2023]

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96.55% of Content Gets No Traffic From Google. Here's How to Be in the Other 3.45% [New Research for 2023]

It’s no secret that the web is growing by millions, if not billions of pages per day.

Our Content Explorer tool discovers 10 million new pages every 24 hours while being very picky about the pages that qualify for inclusion. The “main” Ahrefs web crawler crawls that number of pages every two minutes. 

But how much of this content gets organic traffic from Google?

To find out, we took the entire database from our Content Explorer tool (around 14 billion pages) and studied how many pages get traffic from organic search and why.

How many web pages get organic search traffic?

96.55% of all pages in our index get zero traffic from Google, and 1.94% get between one and ten monthly visits.

Distribution of pages by traffic from Content Explorer

Before we move on to discussing why the vast majority of pages never get any search traffic from Google (and how to avoid being one of them), it’s important to address two discrepancies with the studied data:

  1. ~14 billion pages may seem like a huge number, but it’s not the most accurate representation of the entire web. Even compared to the size of Site Explorer’s index of 340.8 billion pages, our sample size for this study is quite small and somewhat biased towards the “quality side of the web.”
  2. Our search traffic numbers are estimates. Even though our database of ~651 million keywords in Site Explorer (where our estimates come from) is arguably the largest database of its kind, it doesn’t contain every possible thing people search for in Google. There’s a chance that some of these pages get search traffic from super long-tail keywords that are not popular enough to make it into our database.

That said, these two “inaccuracies” don’t change much in the grand scheme of things: the vast majority of published pages never rank in Google and never get any search traffic. 

But why is this, and how can you be a part of the minority that gets organic search traffic from Google?

Well, there are hundreds of SEO issues that may prevent your pages from ranking well in Google. But if we focus only on the most common scenarios, assuming the page is indexed, there are only three of them.

Reason 1: The topic has no search demand

If nobody is searching for your topic, you won’t get any search traffic—even if you rank #1.

For example, I recently Googled “pull sitemap into google sheets” and clicked the top-ranking page (which solved my problem in seconds, by the way). But if you plug that URL into Ahrefs’ Site Explorer, you’ll see that it gets zero estimated organic search traffic:

The top-ranking page for this topic gets no traffic because there's no search demandThe top-ranking page for this topic gets no traffic because there's no search demand

This is because hardly anyone else is searching for this, as data from Keywords Explorer confirms:

Keyword data from Ahrefs' Keywords Explorer confirms that this topic has no search demandKeyword data from Ahrefs' Keywords Explorer confirms that this topic has no search demand

This is why it’s so important to do keyword research. You can’t just assume that people are searching for whatever you want to talk about. You need to check the data.

Our Traffic Potential (TP) metric in Keywords Explorer can help with this. It estimates how much organic search traffic the current top-ranking page for a keyword gets from all the queries it ranks for. This is a good indicator of the total search demand for a topic.

You’ll see this metric for every keyword in Keywords Explorer, and you can even filter for keywords that meet your minimum criteria (e.g., 500+ monthly traffic potential): 

Filtering for keywords with Traffic Potential (TP) in Ahrefs' Keywords ExplorerFiltering for keywords with Traffic Potential (TP) in Ahrefs' Keywords Explorer

Reason 2: The page has no backlinks

Backlinks are one of Google’s top three ranking factors, so it probably comes as no surprise that there’s a clear correlation between the number of websites linking to a page and its traffic.

Pages with more referring domains get more trafficPages with more referring domains get more traffic
Pages with more referring domains get more traffic

Same goes for the correlation between a page’s traffic and keyword rankings:

Pages with more referring domains rank for more keywordsPages with more referring domains rank for more keywords
Pages with more referring domains rank for more keywords

Does any of this data prove that backlinks help you rank higher in Google?

No, because correlation does not imply causation. However, most SEO professionals will tell you that it’s almost impossible to rank on the first page for competitive keywords without backlinks—an observation that aligns with the data above.

The key word there is “competitive.” Plenty of pages get organic traffic while having no backlinks…

Pages with more referring domains get more trafficPages with more referring domains get more traffic
How much traffic pages with no backlinks get

… but from what I can tell, almost all of them are about low-competition topics.

For example, this lyrics page for a Neil Young song gets an estimated 162 monthly visits with no backlinks: 

Example of a page with traffic but no backlinks, via Ahrefs' Content ExplorerExample of a page with traffic but no backlinks, via Ahrefs' Content Explorer

But if we check the keywords it ranks for, they almost all have Keyword Difficulty (KD) scores in the single figures:

Some of the low-difficulty keywords a page without traffic ranks forSome of the low-difficulty keywords a page without traffic ranks for

It’s the same story for this page selling upholstered headboards:

Some of the low-difficulty keywords a page without traffic ranks forSome of the low-difficulty keywords a page without traffic ranks for

You might have noticed two other things about these pages:

  • Neither of them get that much traffic. This is pretty typical. Our index contains ~20 million pages with no referring domains, yet only 2,997 of them get more than 1K search visits per month. That’s roughly 1 in every 6,671 pages with no backlinks.
  • Both of the sites they’re on have high Domain Rating (DR) scores. This metric shows the relative strength of a website’s backlink profile. Stronger sites like these have more PageRank that they can pass to pages with internal links to help them rank. 

Bottom line? If you want your pages to get search traffic, you really only have two options:

  1. Target uncompetitive topics that you can rank for with few or no backlinks.
  2. Target competitive topics and build backlinks to rank.

If you want to find uncompetitive topics, try this:

  1. Enter a topic into Keywords Explorer
  2. Go to the Matching terms report
  3. Set the Keyword Difficulty (KD) filter to max. 20
  4. Set the Lowest DR filter to your site’s DR (this will show you keywords with at least one of the same or lower DR ranking in the top 5)
Filtering for low-competition keywords in Ahrefs' Keywords ExplorerFiltering for low-competition keywords in Ahrefs' Keywords Explorer

(Remember to keep an eye on the TP column to make sure they have traffic potential.)

To rank for more competitive topics, you’ll need to earn or build high-quality backlinks to your page. If you’re not sure how to do that, start with the guides below. Keep in mind that it’ll be practically impossible to get links unless your content adds something to the conversation. 

Reason 3. The page doesn’t match search intent

Google wants to give users the most relevant results for a query. That’s why the top organic results for “best yoga mat” are blog posts with recommendations, not product pages. 

It's obviously what searchers want when they search for "best yoga mats"It's obviously what searchers want when they search for "best yoga mats"

Basically, Google knows that searchers are in research mode, not buying mode.

It’s also why this page selling yoga mats doesn’t show up, despite it having backlinks from more than six times more websites than any of the top-ranking pages:

Page selling yoga mats that has lots of backlinksPage selling yoga mats that has lots of backlinks
Number of linking websites to the top-ranking pages for "best yoga mats"Number of linking websites to the top-ranking pages for "best yoga mats"

Luckily, the page ranks for thousands of other more relevant keywords and gets tens of thousands of monthly organic visits. So it’s not such a big deal that it doesn’t rank for “best yoga mats.”

Number of keyword rankings for the page selling yoga matsNumber of keyword rankings for the page selling yoga mats

However, if you have pages with lots of backlinks but no organic traffic—and they already target a keyword with traffic potential—another quick SEO win is to re-optimize them for search intent.

We did this in 2018 with our free backlink checker.

It was originally nothing but a boring landing page explaining the benefits of our product and offering a 7-day trial: 

Original landing page for our free backlink checkerOriginal landing page for our free backlink checker

After analyzing search intent, we soon realized the issue:

People weren’t looking for a landing page, but rather a free tool they could use right away. 

So, in September 2018, we created a free tool and published it under the same URL. It ranked #1 pretty much overnight, and has remained there ever since. 

Our rankings over time for the keyword "backlink checker." You can see when we changed the pageOur rankings over time for the keyword "backlink checker." You can see when we changed the page

Organic traffic went through the roof, too. From ~14K monthly organic visits pre-optimization to almost ~200K today. 

Estimated search traffic over time to our free backlink checkerEstimated search traffic over time to our free backlink checker

TLDR

96.55% of pages get no organic traffic. 

Keep your pages in the other 3.45% by building backlinks, choosing topics with organic traffic potential, and matching search intent.

Ping me on Twitter if you have any questions. 🙂



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