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How Accurate Are the Search Traffic Estimations in Ahrefs? (New Research)

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One of the most common use cases of Ahrefs is to check how much organic search traffic a given website (or webpage) gets.

It is widely known that the search traffic numbers in Ahrefs are merely estimations. But how far do they deviate from the actual traffic numbers?

We decided to run a small study and try to quantify that.

What to expect from Ahrefs’ traffic estimations

Before I share the results of our study with you, I think it is quite important that you understand how Ahrefs traffic estimates are calculated in the first place.

Here’s what it looks like in a nutshell:

  1. Take all keywords that a website ranks for
  2. Pull the monthly search volume of each keyword
  3. Look up that website’s ranking position for each keyword
  4. Predict the CTR for each of their search snippets
  5. Sum up clicks from each keyword and compute the total estimated monthly search traffic

Can you tell at which step the discrepancies kick in? (Hint: each one)

  • Keywords – It is practically impossible to know all the keywords that a given website is ranking for.
  • Monthly search volumes – These aren’t particularly precise either (see our recent study).
  • Ranking positions – The SERPs are very volatile. Today, your page ranks #3; a day later, it ranks #4.
  • CTR – It is incredibly hard to predict the CTR of a page on a SERP. There are just too many factors to consider: search intent, ads, SERP features, brand affinity, etc.

As you can tell, the data that we (or any other SEO tool) use for computing the search traffic estimations has many issues that are nearly impossible to fix. And these issues inevitably affect the quality of the resulting traffic estimations.

And yet, even though our traffic estimations may deviate from the actual data quite a bit, they’re still good enough to be of immense value for digital marketing professionals of all kinds.

Especially so when one understands how these values are being computed (which you do now) and can, therefore, factor in some level of discrepancy while using that data (more on that later).

So that aside, let’s finally see the results of our research.

How accurate are Ahrefs’ search traffic estimations?

This very study is inspired by the good folks at AuthorityHacker. They recently performed research comparing the quality of search traffic estimations from six different SEO tools.

In their study, Ahrefs turned out to be the winner (with an average discrepancy of 22.5% and 0.99 correlation with GSC data).

Results from Authority Hacker's study where Ahrefs came out on top.

But that study was done on a small sample of just 50 websites. So we decided to replicate it on a larger scale and see how the numbers change.

In our study, we took 1,635 random websites and compared their monthly GSC traffic in the U.S. to their monthly U.S. organic traffic estimates in Ahrefs.

We studied the same two factors:

  1. How much Ahrefs’ traffic estimations deviate from GSC
  2. How consistent our traffic estimations are when compared to GSC

Deviation

In our studied sample of 1,635 websites, the median deviation turned out to be 49.52%.

In other words, most of the time you can expect Ahrefs to misreport a website’s U.S. traffic by up to half of its value.

This may seem like a lot. But in reality, the margin of our error largely depends on the type of website and the industry the site is in. For some websites, we are off by less than 5%. For some others, we can be off by more than 1,000%.

But more often than not, our estimates are rather good:

The median deviation between Ahrefs' traffic estimations and GSC is 49.52%.The median deviation between Ahrefs' traffic estimations and GSC is 49.52%.

To put our median deviation of 49.52% in perspective, we also calculated it for SEMrush, and it turned out to be 68.36%.

Consistency

Here’s what the “consistency” of traffic estimations refers to:

If one website gets more traffic than the other website (according to GSC data), that should hold true when looking at Ahrefs’ data (regardless of the accuracy of the estimates).

As you may have already guessed, this can be studied by calculating the good old correlation between the two sets of values.

In our sample size of 1,635 websites, the monthly GSC traffic in the U.S. correlated with that of Ahrefs’ at 0.76 (Pearson’s). This means that the above statement will hold true in the vast majority of cases.

Sidenote.

In case you’re unfamiliar with correlations, “1” means that the two sets of values are in perfect sync. And 0.76 is pretty close to 1.

Ahrefs' traffic estimates strongly correlate with GSC traffic.Ahrefs' traffic estimates strongly correlate with GSC traffic.

As for SEMRush, theirs was 0.74 for the same set of websites.

A workaround for manually fixing the discrepancy

As you just learned, Ahrefs can be off by a rather considerable amount when estimating a website’s traffic. But at the same time, it is highly consistent in its traffic estimations. Even more so if the websites you’re comparing belong to the same industry.

What this means is that you can better estimate the actual search traffic of your competitors by using this simple formula:

The formula for fixing traffic estimate discrepancies. The formula for fixing traffic estimate discrepancies.

The relationship between GSC traffic and Ahrefs traffic for your own website should hold roughly true for your competitors’ (given that they’re in the same niche as you). So more often than not, using this formula should produce a pretty accurate result.

Final words

Hopefully, this helped you folks understand what you can expect from Ahrefs’ search traffic estimations and how to work around the discrepancy to get much more accurate data.

But most important of all, the results of this research will now serve as a reference point for our product team on our quest to further improve the accuracy of our estimations. Even though it is technically impossible to make them perfect, there’s still quite a bit of room for improvement—which we can try to address.

As always, should you have any comments or questions, you can find me on Twitter.

P.S. Big thanks to Alex from our Data Science team for helping me with this.

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Stop Overcomplicating Things. Entity SEO is Just SEO

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Stop Overcomplicating Things. Entity SEO is Just SEO

“Entity SEO”.

Sounds scary, doesn’t it? Not only does the word “entity” sound foreign, it feels like yet another thing to add to your never-ending SEO to-do list. You’re barely afloat when it comes to SEO, but ohgawd here comes one more new thing to dedicate your scarce resources.

I have good news for you though: You don’t have to do entity SEO.

Why? Because you’re probably already doing it.

Let’s start from the beginning.

In 2012, Google announced the Knowledge Graph. The Knowledge Graph is a knowledge base of entities and the relationships between them.

An entity is any object or concept that can be distinctly identified. This includes tangibles like people, places, and organizations, and intangibles like colors, concepts, and feelings.

For example, the footballer Federico Chiesa is an entity:

The footballer Federico Chiesa is an entityThe footballer Federico Chiesa is an entity

So is the famous British-Indian restaurant Dishoom:

The British-Indian restaurant Dishoom is an entityThe British-Indian restaurant Dishoom is an entity

Entities are connected by edges, which describe the relationships between them.

Introducing the Knowledge Graph helped improve Google’s search results because:

  • Google could better understand search intent — People search for the same thing but describe it in different ways. Google can now understand this and serve the same results.
  • It reduced reliance on keyword matching — Matching the number of keywords on a page doesn’t guarantee relevance; also it prevents crafty SEOs from keyword stuffing.
  • It reduced Google’s computational load — The Internet is virtually infinite and Google simply cannot understand the meaning of every word, paragraph, webpage, and website. Entities provide a structure where Google can improve understanding while minimizing load.

For example, even though we didn’t mention the actor’s name, Google can understand we’re looking for Harrison Ford and therefore shows his filmography:

Google understands Harrison Ford as an entity and can show us his filmographyGoogle understands Harrison Ford as an entity and can show us his filmography

That’s because Hans Solo and Harrison Ford are closely connected entities in the Knowledge Graph. Google shows Knowledge Graph data in SERP features like Knowledge Panels and Knowledge Cards.

Google shows a knowledge panel for Apple, the technology companyGoogle shows a knowledge panel for Apple, the technology company

With this knowledge, we can then define entity SEO as optimizing your website or webpages for such entities.

If Google has moved to entity-oriented search, then entity SEO is just SEO. As my colleague Patrick Stox says, “The entity identification part is more on Google’s end than on our end.”

I mean, if you look at the ‘entity SEO’ tactics you find in blog posts, you’ll discover that they’re mostly just SEO tactics:

  • Earn a Wikipedia page
  • Create a Google Business Profile
  • Add internal links
  • Create all digital assets Google is representing on the page (e.g., videos, images, Twitter)
  • Develop topical authority
  • Include semantically related words on a page
  • Add schema markup

Let’s be honest. If you’re serious about SEO and are investing in it, then it’s likely you’re already doing most of the above.

Regardless of entities, wouldn’t you want a Wikipedia page? After all, it confers benefits beyond “entity SEO”. Brand recognition, backlinks from one of the world’s most authoritative sites (albeit nofollow)—any company would want that.

If you’re a local business, you’ve probably created a Google Business Profile. Adding internal links is just SEO 101.

And billions of blistering barnacles, creating all digital assets Google wants to see, like images and videos, is practically marketing 101. If you’re a Korean recipe site and want to be associated with the kimchi jjigae entity, wouldn’t you already know you need to make a video and have photos of the cooking process?

Google shows images in the knowledge panel for the entity kimchi jjigaeGoogle shows images in the knowledge panel for the entity kimchi jjigae

When I started my breakdance site years ago, I knew nothing about SEO and content marketing but I still knew I needed to make YouTube videos. Because guess what? It’s hard to learn breakdancing from words. I don’t think I needed an entity SEO to tell me that.

Topical authority is an SEO concept where a website aims to become the go-to authority on one or more topics. Call me crazy, but it feels like blogging 101. Read most guides on how to start a blog and I’m sure you’ll find a subheading called “niche down”. And once you niche down, it’s inevitable you’ll create content surrounding that one topic.

If I start a breakdance site, what are the chances I’ll write about contemporary dance or pop art? Pretty low.

In fact, topical authority is similar to the Wiki Strategy, which Nat Eliason wrote about in 2017. There wasn’t a single mention of entities. It was just the right way to make content for the Internet.

I think the biggest problem here isn’t entities versus keywords or that topical authority is a brand-new strategy. It’s simply that many SEOs are driven by short-sightedness or the wrong incentives.

You can target a whole bunch of unrelated keywords that have high search volume, gain incredible amounts of search traffic, and brag about how successful you are as an SEO.

Some of the pages sending HubSpot the most search traffic has barely anything to do with their core product. A page on how to type the shrug emoji? The most famous quotes?

HubSpot's top pages that sends them the most search trafficHubSpot's top pages that sends them the most search traffic

This is not to single out HubSpot—I’m sure they have their reasons, as explored by Ryan here—but to illustrate that many companies do the exact same thing. And when Google stops rewarding this behavior, all of a sudden companies realise they do need to write about their core competencies. They need to “build topical authority”.

I don’t want to throw the baby out with the bathwater because I do see value in the last two ‘entity SEO tactics’. But again, if you’re doing something similar to the Wiki Strategy for your site, chances are you would have naturally included entities or semantically relevant words without thinking too much about it. It’s difficult to create content about kimchi jjigae without mentioning kimchi, pork, or gochujang.

However, to prevent the curse of knowledge or simply to avoid blindspots, checking for important subtopics you might have missed is useful. At Ahrefs, we run a page-level content gap analysis and look out for subtopics:

Open in Content gap feature in Keywords ExplorerOpen in Content gap feature in Keywords Explorer

For example, if we ran a content gap analysis on “inbound marketing” for the top three ranking pages, we see that we might need to include these subtopics:

  • What is inbound marketing
  • Inbound marketing strategy
  • Inbound marketing examples
  • Inbound marketing tools
Content gap report for inbound marketingContent gap report for inbound marketing

Finally, adding schema markup makes the most sense because it’s how Google recognizes entities and better understands the content of web pages. But if it’s just one new tactic—which I believe is already part of ‘standard’ SEO and you might already be doing it—then there’s no need to create a category to define the “new era” (voice SEO, where art thou?)

Final thoughts

Two years ago, someone on Reddit asked for an SEO workflow that utilized super advanced SEO methodologies:

A question on RedditA question on Reddit

The top answer: None of the above.

Comments on RedditComments on Reddit

When our Chief Marketing Officer Tim Soulo tweeted about this Reddit thread, he got similar replies too:

Replies to Tim Soulo's tweetReplies to Tim Soulo's tweet

And even though I don’t know him, this is a person after my own heart:

A tweet agreeing that entity SEO is a fadA tweet agreeing that entity SEO is a fad

You don’t have to worry about entity SEO. If you have passion for a topic and are creating high-quality content that fulfills what people are looking for, then you’re likely already doing “entity SEO”.

Just follow this meme: Make stuff people like.

Midwit meme showing you just need to make stuff people likeMidwit meme showing you just need to make stuff people like

 

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Assigning The Right Conversion Values To Make Value-Based Bidding Work For Lead Gen

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Assigning The Right Conversion Values To Make Value-Based Bidding Work For Lead Gen

Last week, we tackled setting your data strategy for value-based bidding.

The next key is to assign the right values for the conversion actions that are important to your business.

We know this step is often seen as trickier for lead gen-focused businesses than, say, ecommerce businesses.

How much is a whitepaper download, newsletter signup, or online quote request worth to your business? While you may not have exact figures, that’s OK. What you do know is they aren’t all valued equally.

Check out the quick 2-minute video in our series below, and then keep reading as we dive deeper into assigning conversion values to optimize your value-based bidding strategy.

Understanding Conversion Values

First, let’s get on the same page about what “conversion value” means.

A conversion refers to a desired action taken by a user, such as filling out a lead form, making a purchase, or signing up for a newsletter.

Conversion value is simply a numerical representation of how much each of these conversions is worth to your business.

Estimating The Value Of Each Conversion

Ideally, you’d have a precise understanding of how much revenue each conversion generates.

However, we understand that this is not always feasible.

In such cases, it’s perfectly acceptable to use “proxy values” – estimations that align with your business priorities.

The important thing is to ensure that these proxy values reflect the relative importance of different conversions to your business.

For example, a whitepaper download may indicate less “value” than a product demo registration based on what you understand about your past customer acquisition efforts.

Establishing Proxy Values

Let’s explore some scenarios to illustrate how you might establish proxy values.

Take the event florist example mentioned in the video. You’ve seen that clients who provide larger guest counts or budgets in their online quote requests tend to result in more lucrative events.

Knowing this, you can assign higher proxy values to these leads compared to those with smaller guest counts or budgets.

Similarly, if you’re an auto insurance advertiser, you might leverage your existing lead scoring system as a basis for proxy values. Leads with higher scores, indicating a greater likelihood of a sale, would naturally be assigned higher values.

You don’t need to have exact value figures to make value-based bidding effective. Work with your sales and finance teams to help identify the key factors that influence lead quality and value.

This will help you understand which conversion actions indicate a higher likelihood of becoming a customer – and even which actions indicate the likelihood of becoming a higher-value customer for your business.

Sharing Conversion Values With Google Ads

Once you’ve determined the proxy values for your conversion actions, you’ll need to share that information with Google Ads. This enables the system to prioritize actions that drive the most value for your business.

To do this, go to the Summary tab on the Conversions page (under the Goals icon) in your account. From there, you can edit your conversion actions settings to input the value for each. More here.

As I noted in the last episode, strive for daily uploads of your conversion data, if possible, to ensure Google Ads has the most up-to-date information by connecting your sources via Google Ads Data Manager or the Google Ads API.

Fine-Tuning With Conversion Value Rules

To add another layer of precision, you can utilize conversion value rules.

Conversion value rules allow you to adjust the value assigned to a conversion based on specific attributes or conditions that aren’t already indicated in your account. For example, you may have different margins for different types of customers.

Instead of every lead form submission having the same static value you’ve assigned, you can tell Google Ads which leads are more valuable to your business based on three factors:

  • Location: You might adjust conversion values based on the geographical location of the user. For example, if users in a particular region tend to convert at a higher rate or generate more revenue.
  • Audience: You can tailor conversion values based on specific audience segments, such as first-party data or Google audience lists.
  • Device: Consider adjusting conversion values based on the device the user is using. Perhaps users on mobile devices convert at a higher rate – you could increase their conversion value to reflect that.

When implementing these rules, your value-based bidding strategies (maximize conversion value with an optional target ROAS) will take them into account and optimize accordingly.

Conversion value rules can be set at the account or campaign levels. They are supported in Search, Shopping, Display, and Performance Max campaigns.

Google Ads will prioritize showing your ads to users predicted to be more likely to generate those leads you value more.

Conversion Value Rules And Reporting

These rules also impact how you report conversion value in your account.

For example, you may value a lead at $5, but know that these leads from Californian users are typically worth twice as much. With conversion value rules, you could specify this, and Google Ads would multiply values for users from California by two and report that accordingly in the conversion volume column in your account.

Additionally, you can segment your conversion value rules in Campaigns reporting to see the impact by selecting Conversions, then Value rule adjustment.

There are three segment options:

  • Original value (rule applied): Total original value of conversions, which then had a value rule applied.
  • Original value (no rule applied): Total recorded value of conversions that did not have a value rule applied.
  • Audience, Location, Device, or No Condition: The net adjustment when value rules were applied.

You can add the conversion value rules column to your reporting as well. These columns are called “All value adjustment” and “Value adjustment.”

Also note that reporting for conversion value rules applies to all conversions, not just the ones in the ‘conversions’ column.

Conversion Value Rule Considerations

You can also create more complex rules by combining conditions.

For example, if you observe that users from Texas who have also subscribed to your newsletter are exceptionally valuable, you could create a rule that increases their conversion value even further.

When using conversion value rules, keep in mind:

  • Start Simple: Begin by implementing a few basic conversion value rules based on your most critical lead attributes.
  • Additive Nature of Rules: Conversion value rules are additive. If multiple rules apply to the same user, their effects will be combined.
  • Impact on Reporting: The same adjusted value that’s determined at bidding time is also used for reporting.
  • Regular Review for Adjustment: As your business evolves and you gather more data, revisit your conversion values and rules to ensure they remain aligned with your goals.

Putting The Pieces Together

Assigning the right values to your conversions is a crucial step in maximizing the effectiveness of your value-based bidding strategies.

By providing Google Ads with accurate and nuanced conversion data, you empower the system to make smarter decisions, optimize your bids, and ultimately drive more valuable outcomes for your business.

Up next, we’ll talk about determining which bid strategy is right for you. Stay tuned!

More resources: 


Featured Image: BestForBest/Shutterstock

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Expert Embedding Techniques for SEO Success

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Expert Embedding Techniques for SEO Success

AI Overviews are here, and they’re making a big impact in the world of SEO. Are you up to speed on how to maximize their impact?

Watch on-demand as we dive into the fascinating world of Google AI Overviews and their functionality, exploring the concept of embeddings and demystifying the complex processes behind them.

We covered which measures play a crucial role in how Google AI assesses the relevance of different pieces of content, helping to rank and select the most pertinent information for AI-generated responses.

You’ll see:

  • An understanding of the technical side of embeddings & how they work, enabling efficient information retrieval and comparison.
  • Insights into AI Content curation, including the criteria and algorithms used to rank and choose the most relevant snippets for AI-generated overviews.
  • A visualization of the step-by-step process of how AI overviews are constructed, with a clear perspective on the decision-making process behind AI-generated content.

With Scott Stouffer from Market Brew, we explored their AI Overviews Visualizer, a tool that deconstructs AI Overviews and provides an inside look at how Snippets and AI Overviews are curated. 

If you’re looking to clarify misconceptions around AI, or looking to face the challenge of optimizing your own content for the AI Overview revolution, then be sure to watch this webinar.

View the slides below, or check out the full presentation for all the details.

Join Us For Our Next Webinar!

[Expert Panel] How Agencies Leverage AI Tools To Drive ROI

Join us as we discuss the importance of AI to your performance as an agency or small business, and how you can use it successfully.

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