SEO
How Accurate Are the Search Traffic Estimations in Ahrefs? (New Research)
One of the most common use cases of Ahrefs is to check how much organic search traffic a given website (or webpage) gets.
It is widely known that the search traffic numbers in Ahrefs are merely estimations. But how far do they deviate from the actual traffic numbers?
We decided to run a small study and try to quantify that.
What to expect from Ahrefs’ traffic estimations
Before I share the results of our study with you, I think it is quite important that you understand how Ahrefs traffic estimates are calculated in the first place.
Here’s what it looks like in a nutshell:
- Take all keywords that a website ranks for
- Pull the monthly search volume of each keyword
- Look up that website’s ranking position for each keyword
- Predict the CTR for each of their search snippets
- Sum up clicks from each keyword and compute the total estimated monthly search traffic
Can you tell at which step the discrepancies kick in? (Hint: each one)
- Keywords – It is practically impossible to know all the keywords that a given website is ranking for.
- Monthly search volumes – These aren’t particularly precise either (see our recent study).
- Ranking positions – The SERPs are very volatile. Today, your page ranks #3; a day later, it ranks #4.
- CTR – It is incredibly hard to predict the CTR of a page on a SERP. There are just too many factors to consider: search intent, ads, SERP features, brand affinity, etc.
As you can tell, the data that we (or any other SEO tool) use for computing the search traffic estimations has many issues that are nearly impossible to fix. And these issues inevitably affect the quality of the resulting traffic estimations.
And yet, even though our traffic estimations may deviate from the actual data quite a bit, they’re still good enough to be of immense value for digital marketing professionals of all kinds.
Especially so when one understands how these values are being computed (which you do now) and can, therefore, factor in some level of discrepancy while using that data (more on that later).
So that aside, let’s finally see the results of our research.
How accurate are Ahrefs’ search traffic estimations?
This very study is inspired by the good folks at AuthorityHacker. They recently performed research comparing the quality of search traffic estimations from six different SEO tools.
In their study, Ahrefs turned out to be the winner (with an average discrepancy of 22.5% and 0.99 correlation with GSC data).
But that study was done on a small sample of just 50 websites. So we decided to replicate it on a larger scale and see how the numbers change.
In our study, we took 1,635 random websites and compared their monthly GSC traffic in the U.S. to their monthly U.S. organic traffic estimates in Ahrefs.
We studied the same two factors:
- How much Ahrefs’ traffic estimations deviate from GSC
- How consistent our traffic estimations are when compared to GSC
Deviation
In our studied sample of 1,635 websites, the median deviation turned out to be 49.52%.
In other words, most of the time you can expect Ahrefs to misreport a website’s U.S. traffic by up to half of its value.
This may seem like a lot. But in reality, the margin of our error largely depends on the type of website and the industry the site is in. For some websites, we are off by less than 5%. For some others, we can be off by more than 1,000%.
But more often than not, our estimates are rather good:
To put our median deviation of 49.52% in perspective, we also calculated it for SEMrush, and it turned out to be 68.36%.
Consistency
Here’s what the “consistency” of traffic estimations refers to:
If one website gets more traffic than the other website (according to GSC data), that should hold true when looking at Ahrefs’ data (regardless of the accuracy of the estimates).
As you may have already guessed, this can be studied by calculating the good old correlation between the two sets of values.
In our sample size of 1,635 websites, the monthly GSC traffic in the U.S. correlated with that of Ahrefs’ at 0.76 (Pearson’s). This means that the above statement will hold true in the vast majority of cases.
Sidenote.
In case you’re unfamiliar with correlations, “1” means that the two sets of values are in perfect sync. And 0.76 is pretty close to 1.
As for SEMRush, theirs was 0.74 for the same set of websites.
A workaround for manually fixing the discrepancy
As you just learned, Ahrefs can be off by a rather considerable amount when estimating a website’s traffic. But at the same time, it is highly consistent in its traffic estimations. Even more so if the websites you’re comparing belong to the same industry.
What this means is that you can better estimate the actual search traffic of your competitors by using this simple formula:
The relationship between GSC traffic and Ahrefs traffic for your own website should hold roughly true for your competitors’ (given that they’re in the same niche as you). So more often than not, using this formula should produce a pretty accurate result.
Final words
Hopefully, this helped you folks understand what you can expect from Ahrefs’ search traffic estimations and how to work around the discrepancy to get much more accurate data.
But most important of all, the results of this research will now serve as a reference point for our product team on our quest to further improve the accuracy of our estimations. Even though it is technically impossible to make them perfect, there’s still quite a bit of room for improvement—which we can try to address.
As always, should you have any comments or questions, you can find me on Twitter.
P.S. Big thanks to Alex from our Data Science team for helping me with this.
SEO
Google Updating Cryptocurrency Advertising Policy For 2024

Google published an announcement of upcoming changes to their cryptocurrency advertising policies and advises advertisers to make themselves aware of the changes and prepare to be in compliance with the new requirements.
The upcoming updates are to Google’s Cryptocurrencies and related products policy for the advertisement of Cryptocurrency Coin Trusts. The changes are set to take effect on January 29th, 2024.
Cryptocurrency Coin Trusts are financial products that enable investors to trade shares in trusts holding substantial amounts of digital currency. These trusts provide investors with equity in cryptocurrencies without having direct ownership. They are also an option for creating a more diversified portfolio.
The policy updates by Google that are coming in 2024 aim to describe the scope and requirements for the advertisement of Cryptocurrency Coin Trusts. Advertisers targeting the United States will be able to promote these products and services as long as they abide by specific policies outlined in the updated requirements and that they also obtain certification from Google.
The updated policy changes are not limited to the United States. They will apply globally to all accounts advertising Cryptocurrency Coin Trusts.
Google’s announcement also reminded advertisers of their obligation for compliance to local laws in the areas where the ads are targeted.
Google’s approach for violations of the new policy will be to first give a warning before imposing an account suspension.
Advertisers that fail to comply with the updated policy will receive a warning at least seven days before a potential account suspension. This time period provides advertisers with an opportunity to fix non-compliance issues and to get back into compliance with the revised guidelines.
Advertisers are encouraged to refer to Google’s documentation on “About restricted financial products certification.”
The deadline for the change in policy is January 29th, 2024. Cryptocurrency Coin Trusts advertisers will need to pay close attention to the updated policies in order to ensure compliance.
Read Google’s announcement:
Updates to Cryptocurrencies and related products policy (December 2023)
SEO
SEO Trends You Can’t Ignore In 2024

Most SEO trends fade quickly. But some of them stick and deserve your attention.
Let’s explore what those are and how to take advantage of them.
If you give ChatGPT a title and ask it to write a blog post, it will—in seconds.
This is super impressive, but there are a couple of issues:
- Everyone else using ChatGPT is creating the same content. It’s the same for users of other GPT-powered AI writing tools, too—which is basically all of them.
- The content is extremely dull. Sure, you can ask ChatGPT to “make it more entertaining,” but it usually overcompensates and hands back a cringe version of the same boring content.
In the words of Gael Breton:
How to take advantage of this SEO trend
Don’t use AI to write entire articles. They’ll be boring as heck. Instead, use it as a creative sparring partner to help you write better content and automate monotonous tasks.
For example, you can ask ChatGPT To write an outline from a working title and a list of keywords (which you can pull from Ahrefs)—and it does a pretty decent job.
Prompt:
Create an outline for a post entitled “[working title]” based on these keywords: [list]
Result:


When you’ve written your draft, you can ask to polish it in seconds by asking ChatGPT to proofread it.


Then you can automate the boring stuff, like creating more enticing title tags…


… and writing a meta description:


If you notice a few months down the line that your content ranks well but hasn’t won the featured snippet, ChatGPT can help with that, too.
For example, Ahrefs tells us we rank in position 3 for “affiliate marketing” but don’t own the snippet.


If we check Google, the snippet is a definition. Asking ChatGPT to simplify our definition may solve this problem.


In short, there are a near-infinite number of ways to use ChatGPT (and other AI writing tools) to create better content. And all of them buck the trend of asking it to write boring, boilerplate articles from scratch.
Programmatic SEO refers to the creation of keyword-targeted pages in an automatic (or near automatic) way.
Nomadlist’s location pages are a perfect example:


Each page focuses on a specific city and shares the same core information—internet speeds, cost, temperature, etc. All of this information is pulled programmatically from a database and the site gets an estimated 46k monthly search visits in total.


Programmatic SEO is nothing new. It’s been around forever. It’s just the hot thing right now because AI tools like ChatGPT make it easier and more accessible than ever before.
The problem? As John Mueller pointed out on Twitter X, much of it is spam:
I love fire, but also programmatic SEO is often a fancy banner for spam.
— I am John – ⭐ Say no to cookies – biscuits only ⭐ (@JohnMu) July 25, 2023
How to take advantage of this SEO trend
Don’t use programmatic SEO to publish insane amounts of spam that’ll probably get hit in the next Google update. Use it to scale valuable content that will stand the test of time.
For example, Wise’s currency conversion pages currently get an estimated 31.7M monthly search visits:


This is because the content is actually useful. Each page features an interactive tool showing the live exchange rate for any amount…


… the exchange rate over time…


… a handy email notification option when the exchange rates exceed a certain amount…


… handy conversion charts for popular amounts…


… and a comparison of the cheapest ways to send money abroad in your chosen currency:


It doesn’t matter that all of these pages use the same template. The data is exactly what you want to see when you search [currency 1] to [currency 2]
.
That’s probably why Wise ranks in the top 10 for over 66,000 of these keywords:


Looking to take advantage of programmatic content in 2024 like Wise? Check out the guide below.
People love ChatGPT because it answers questions fast and succinctly, so it’s no surprise that generative AI is already making its way into search.
For example, if you ask Bing for a definition or how to do something basic, AI will generate an answer on the fly right there in the search results.




In other words, thanks to AI, users no longer have to click on a search result for answers to simple questions. It’s like featured snippets on steroids.
This might not be a huge deal right now, but when Google’s version of this (Search Generative Experience) comes out of beta, many websites will see clicks fall off a cliff.
How to take advantage of this SEO trend
Don’t invest too much in topics that generative AI can easily answer. You’ll only lose clicks like crazy to AI in the long run. Instead, start prioritizing topics that AI will struggle to answer.
How do you know which topics it will struggle to answer? Try asking ChatGPT. If it gives a good and concise answer, it’s clearly an easy question.
For example, there are hundreds of searches for how to calculate a percentage in Google Sheets every month in the US:


If you ask ChatGPT for the solution, it gives you a perfect answer in about fifty words.


This is the perfect example of a topic where generative AI will remove the need to click on a search result for many.
That’s probably not going to be the case for a topic like this:


Sure. Generative AI might be able to tell you how to create a template—but it can’t make one for you. And even if it can in the future, it will never be a personal finance expert with experience. You’ll always have to click on a search result for a template created by that person.
These are the kinds of topics to prioritize in 2024 and beyond.
Sidenote.
None of this means you should stop targeting “simple” topics altogether. You’ll always be able to get some traffic from them. My point is not to be obsessed with ranking for keywords whose days are numbered. Prioritize topics with long-term value instead.
Bonus: 3 SEO trends to ignore in 2024
Not all SEO trends move the needle. Here are just a few of those trends and why you should ignore them.
People are using voice search more than ever
In 2014, Google revealed that 41% of Americans use voice search daily. According to research by UpCity, that number was up to 50% as of 2022. I haven’t seen any data for 2023 yet, but I’d imagine it’s above 50%.
Why you should ignore this SEO trend
75% of voice search results come from a page ranking in the top 3, and 40.7% come from a featured snippet. If you’re already optimizing for those things, there’s not much more you can do.
People are using visual search for shopping more than ever
In 2022, Insider Intelligence reported that 22% of US adults have shopped with visual search (Google Lens, Bing Visual Search, etc.). That number is up from just 15% in 2021.
Why you should ignore this SEO trend
Much like voice search, there’s no real way to optimize for visual search. Sure, it helps to have good quality product images, optimized filenames and alt text, and product schema markup on your pages—but you should be doing this stuff anyway as it’s been a best practice since forever.
People are using Bing more than ever before
Bing’s Yusuf Mehdi announced in March 2023 that the search engine had surpassed 100M daily active users for the first time ever. This came just one month after the launch of AI-powered Bing.
Why you should ignore this SEO trend
Bing might be more popular than ever, but its market share still only stands at around ~3% according to estimates by Statcounter. Google’s market share stands at roughly 92%, so that’s the one you should be optimizing for.
Plus, it’s often the case that if you rank in Google, you also rank in Bing—so it really doesn’t deserve any focus.
Final thoughts
Keeping your finger on the pulse and taking advantage of trends makes sense, but don’t let them distract you from the boring stuff that’s always worked: find what people are searching for > create content about it > build backlinks > repeat.
Got questions? Ping me on Twitter X.
SEO
Mozilla VPN Security Risks Discovered

Mozilla published the results of a recent third-party security audit of its VPN services as part of it’s commitment to user privacy and security. The survey revealed security issues which were presented to Mozilla to be addressed with fixes to ensure user privacy and security.
Many search marketers use VPNs during the course of their business especially when using a Wi-Fi connection in order to protect sensitive data, so the trustworthiness of a VNP is essential.
Mozilla VPN
A Virtual Private Network (VPN), is a service that hides (encrypts) a user’s Internet traffic so that no third party (like an ISP) can snoop and see what sites a user is visiting.
VPNs also add a layer of security from malicious activities such as session hijacking which can give an attacker full access to the websites a user is visiting.
There is a high expectation from users that the VPN will protect their privacy when they are browsing on the Internet.
Mozilla thus employs the services of a third party to conduct a security audit to make sure their VPN is thoroughly locked down.
Security Risks Discovered
The audit revealed vulnerabilities of medium or higher severity, ranging from Denial of Service (DoS). risks to keychain access leaks (related to encryption) and the lack of access controls.
Cure53, the third party security firm, discovered and addressed several risks. Among the issues were potential VPN leaks to the vulnerability of a rogue extension that disabled the VPN.
The scope of the audit encompassed the following products:
- Mozilla VPN Qt6 App for macOS
- Mozilla VPN Qt6 App for Linux
- Mozilla VPN Qt6 App for Windows
- Mozilla VPN Qt6 App for iOS
- Mozilla VPN Qt6 App for Androi
These are the risks identified by the security audit:
- FVP-03-003: DoS via serialized intent
- FVP-03-008: Keychain access level leaks WG private key to iCloud
- VP-03-010: VPN leak via captive portal detection
- FVP-03-011: Lack of local TCP server access controls
- FVP-03-012: Rogue extension can disable VPN using mozillavpnnp (High)
The rogue extension issue was rated as high severity. Each risk was subsequently addressed by Mozilla.
Mozilla presented the results of the security audit as part of their commitment to transparency and to maintain the trust and security of their users. Conducting a third party security audit is a best practice for a VPN provider that helps assure that the VPN is trustworthy and reliable.
Read Mozilla’s announcement:
Mozilla VPN Security Audit 2023
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