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How to Estimate Your Chances to Rank

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It’s easy to find keywords that can bring lots of traffic to your website. What’s harder is to predict your chances of ranking for them.

To help solve this problem, SEO tools like Ahrefs give keywords a “difficulty” score from 0 to 100.

But the truth is that these scores aren’t foolproof.

So in this post, I’m going to outline the benefits and shortcomings of the Keyword Difficulty metric, as well as break down what other things professional SEOs look at when estimating their chances to rank for a given keyword.

What is keyword difficulty?

Keyword Difficulty (KD) is an SEO metric that estimates how hard it would be to rank on the first page of Google for a given keyword. It is measured on a scale from 0 to 100, with the latter being the hardest to rank for.

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Keywords Explorer overview of "best backpack," which has a KD of 42

However, when many SEO professionals use the term “keyword difficulty,” they’re referring to the broader concept of ranking difficulty—not a particular metric in a particular SEO tool.

Keyword difficulty as a metric

Almost every keyword research tool has a keyword difficulty score. These tools all use the same 0-100 scale, but each one calculates it differently.

If you check the keyword difficulty of the same keywords in different SEO tools, the numbers will vary quite substantially:

Table showing KD scores for various keywords vary for each toolTable showing KD scores for various keywords vary for each tool

That is why it is important to understand how exactly the ranking difficulty is calculated by your SEO tool of choice. Only then can you make informed decisions based on it.

Here at Ahrefs, we use a simple method for calculating KD. We pull the top 10 ranking pages for your keyword and look up how many websites link to each of them. The more links the top-ranking pages for your keyword have, the higher its KD score. Very simple and very actionable.

SERP overview for "best backpack" SERP overview for "best backpack"

Keyword Difficulty in Ahrefs is based on linking domains to top-ranking pages.

Using more factors for calculating Keyword Difficulty

Many SEOs who use Ahrefs have been asking us to consider more factors when calculating our KD metric:

Well, let’s say we decided to include Domain Rating (DR) in our calculation. Here’s what happens if we take two hypothetical keywords:

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  • Keyword #1 – Has pages from DR 80+ websites ranking in the top 10, but none has any backlinks
  • Keyword #2 – Has pages from DR <40 websites in the top 10, but each of them has 40+ backlinks

Which of these keywords should have a higher KD? And by how much?

If you ask a few dozen SEOs to manually score these two keywords on a scale from 0 to 100, their estimates will be very different. That’s because each SEO professional will distribute the “weights” of DR and page-level backlinks differently when blending them into a single KD score.

So by adding just one additional variable (DR), we’re causing a great deal of controversy to the calculation of KD and making it quite unintuitive.

Hopefully, that explains why we decided to keep our KD metric super simple and only use the backlinks of the top-ranking pages to calculate it.

This way, you know exactly what you’re looking at when applying a KD filter to your list of keywords. It gives you a straightforward benchmark of how many backlinks the top-ranking pages for each keyword have:

  • KD 0-5 – Top-ranking pages barely have any backlinks
  • KD ~50 – Top-ranking pages have a couple of hundred backlinks
  • KD 90+ – Top-ranking pages have thousands of backlinks

But backlinks aren’t the only ranking factor. If you want to properly gauge your chances of ranking for a given keyword, you need to go further and do a more thorough analysis of the SERP.

Speaking of which…

Keyword difficulty as a concept

Nobody knows exactly how Google ranks pages. But we do know the main things that matter for ranking well. And by analyzing those “main things,” SEOs can get a pretty good idea of what it takes to rank on Google for a given keyword.

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So here’s how they do it.

1. Figure out how many backlinks you’ll need

Backlinks act as votes, which tell Google that a given page is more valuable than any other page on the same topic. So, as a general rule, if you want to rank in the top 10 search results for a given keyword, you’ll have to acquire as many backlinks as the current top-ranking pages have (if not more).

In Ahrefs’ Keywords Explorer, we actually have a text hint right under our KD score that tells you an approximate number of backlinks you’ll need:

Keywords Explorer overview of "best backpack"; notably, there's a text hint below the KD scoreKeywords Explorer overview of "best backpack"; notably, there's a text hint below the KD score

Two important caveats here:

  1. The hint says “to rank in the top 10,” which means that getting as many (or more) backlinks as your competitors won’t guarantee that you’ll rank #1. But there’s a very good chance that you’ll rank somewhere in the top 10.
  2. The sheer quantity of backlinks can often be misleading because some backlinks cast a stronger vote than others. So this number is merely an estimation.

To properly estimate the strength of the backlink profiles of the top-ranking pages, you’ll have to review all their backlinks manually, i.e., do a backlink audit of these pages.

In Keywords Explorer, we’ve created a handy shortcut for this, since each number in the “SERP Overview” links to its respective backlink report in Ahrefs’ Site Explorer:

SERP overview for "best backpack" SERP overview for "best backpack"

Click these numbers (in the highlighted columns) to manually review backlinks.

2. Review the “authority” of your competitors

Many SEOs believe that Google often gives preference to pages that belong to big, popular websites. So if there are lots of these on a SERP, they recommend you to stay away—unless your website is just as big and famous.

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And while we don’t necessarily agree with such an assessment, we do think it may be quite useful to peek at how authoritative the top-ranking websites are.

Google itself has consistently denied that it uses any form of sitewide authority metric in its ranking algorithm. But I can think of at least two ways how a high website authority can indirectly contribute toward a higher ranking on Google:

A. Internal links

High DR means that a given website has lots of strong pages with high authority. And the page that you see ranking on Google may be receiving lots of “link juice” from such pages, making it a high-authority page too (even in the absence of backlinks from other websites).

B. Familiar brand

When presented with a list of search results, many people will prefer to click on the websites that are familiar to them. Google is allegedly tracking some “behavioral factors” to better understand if people were satisfied with the search results. And that can lead to “familiar websites” getting a ranking preference because that is what searchers want to get.

3. Investigate the search intent

Your ability to address the search intent is of utmost importance for ranking well on Google. In case you’re unfamiliar with the term, search intent is basically the expectation that searchers have. Google’s goal is to fulfill people’s expectations when they perform a search.

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Many marketers (including our own Joshua Hardwick) tend to group all searches into four distinct search intent buckets: informational, navigational, transactional, and commercial.

But I’m not a big fan of that approach.

Let me give an example. Instead of trying to figure out if the search query “backlink checker” is informational, navigational, or transactional (and what that means for your page anyway), it is much more productive to review the actual top-ranking pages for that keyword and analyze what searchers get from them.

SERP overview for "backlink checker" SERP overview for "backlink checker"

As you can tell from the screenshot above, all the top-ranking pages for the keyword “backlink checker” are free online tools. So the search intent of this keyword is “a free online tool to check backlinks.”

Thus, if you try to target this keyword with a blog article or a landing page, it won’t work.

I know this for a fact because we actually tried it.

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Organic traffic for our "backlink checker" page increased after we nailed search intent Organic traffic for our "backlink checker" page increased after we nailed search intent

Above is the graph of organic search traffic to our backlink checker page.

Before the end of 2019, it was just a simple landing page explaining that Ahrefs has a backlink checker tool and offering people to sign up for our paid trial. No matter how much we optimized that page, it never ranked higher than #8 for that keyword.

Then we studied the pages that were outranking us and realized that all of them were free online tools. And as soon as we converted our landing page into a free tool, it shot up to #1 for the keyword “backlink checker” and started ranking high for many other relevant keywords.

Infographic showing the before (landing page) and after (page to use free tool) versions of our "backlink checker" page Infographic showing the before (landing page) and after (page to use free tool) versions of our "backlink checker" page

So instead of trying to decide if the search intent of your keyword is “transactional” or “informational,” just browse the top-ranking pages and figure out what exactly people expect to get from it.

4. Gauge the quality of content

The famous Skyscraper technique has led lots of content marketers astray by suggesting that a longer and more detailed article equals a better article.

But just making your article longer doesn’t necessarily make it better. A better article is one that provides more value in less time (and without boring you to death).

So here are some pointers that will help you gauge the quality of content that already ranks at the top for your target keyword:

  1. Does it provide accurate and up-to-date information?
  2. Is it written by a subject matter expert?
  3. Does it contain unique information?
  4. Is it well-written?
  5. Is it properly formatted?
  6. Is it well-designed?

The first three are the most important ones. Google wants to provide its users with accurate information that comes from credible sources. We know that for a fact because the latest edition of its Search Quality Rater Guidelines has lots of focus on the concept called E-A-T, which stands for expertise, authoritativeness, and trustworthiness.

So instead of making your pages longer than those of your competitors, try investing in E-A-T.

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What is a good Keyword Difficulty to target?

As with many things in SEO, the answer is it depends:

  • On the authority of your website.
  • On your credibility in a given space.
  • On your ability to acquire backlinks.
  • On whether you have the ability and/or resources to cater to search intent.
  • Etc.

A good exercise that may help you get used to Ahrefs’ KD metric is to look up the KD scores of the keywords that your website is already ranking for.

You can do this by entering your website into Ahrefs’ Site Explorer and visiting the Organic keywords report:

Organic keywords report for Ahrefs' blog showing KD scores of keywords  Organic keywords report for Ahrefs' blog showing KD scores of keywords

This gives you a nice benchmark. But it’s by no means a substitute for the process I’ve outlined above. If you want to accurately estimate your chances of ranking for a given keyword, you should thoroughly study the top-ranking pages and factor in your own skills and resources.

And please don’t shy away from targeting high-KD keywords. When it comes to many of the KD 70+ keywords that we rank for today, it took us four to five rewrites, lots of promotion, and many years of patience to get there. So the sooner you “attack” a high-KD keyword that you really want to rank for, the sooner you’ll get there.

Final thoughts

It would be quite awesome to have a keyword difficulty metric that could accurately predict your chances of ranking for a given keyword. But as you can probably tell by now, such a metric doesn’t exist.

So the only way for you to make the right SEO bets is by thoroughly studying the search results for the keywords that you want to rank for.

I hope the process I’ve outlined above is helpful for you. And if you have any further questions, feel free to ping me on Twitter.

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Google’s Search Engine Market Share Drops As Competitors’ Grows

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Assorted search engine apps including Google, You.com and Bing are seen on an iPhone. Microsoft plans to use ChatGPT in Bing, and You.com has launched an AI chatbot.

According to data from GS Statcounter, Google’s search engine market share has fallen to 86.99%, the lowest point since the firm began tracking search engine share in 2009.

The drop represents a more than 4% decrease from the previous month, marking the largest single-month decline on record.

Screenshot from: https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share/, May 2024.

U.S. Market Impact

The decline is most significant in Google’s key market, the United States, where its share of searches across all devices fell by nearly 10%, reaching 77.52%.

1714669058 226 Googles Search Engine Market Share Drops As Competitors GrowsScreenshot from: https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share/, May 2024.

Concurrently, competitors Microsoft Bing and Yahoo Search have seen gains. Bing reached a 13% market share in the U.S. and 5.8% globally, its highest since launching in 2009.

Yahoo Search’s worldwide share nearly tripled to 3.06%, a level not seen since July 2015.

1714669058 375 Googles Search Engine Market Share Drops As Competitors GrowsScreenshot from: https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share/, May 2024.

Search Quality Concerns

Many industry experts have recently expressed concerns about the declining quality of Google’s search results.

A portion of the SEO community believes that the search giant’s results have worsened following the latest update.

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These concerns have begun to extend to average internet users, who are increasingly voicing complaints about the state of their search results.

Alternative Perspectives

Web analytics platform SimilarWeb provided additional context on X (formerly Twitter), stating that its data for the US for March 2024 suggests Google’s decline may not be as severe as initially reported.

SimilarWeb also highlighted Yahoo’s strong performance, categorizing it as a News and Media platform rather than a direct competitor to Google in the Search Engine category.

Why It Matters

The shifting search engine market trends can impact businesses, marketers, and regular users.

Google has been on top for a long time, shaping how we find things online and how users behave.

However, as its market share drops and other search engines gain popularity, publishers may need to rethink their online strategies and optimize for multiple search platforms besides Google.

Users are becoming vocal about Google’s declining search quality over time. As people start trying alternate search engines, the various platforms must prioritize keeping users satisfied if they want to maintain or grow their market position.

It will be interesting to see how they respond to this boost in market share.

What It Means for SEO Pros

As Google’s competitors gain ground, SEO strategies may need to adapt by accounting for how each search engine’s algorithms and ranking factors work.

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This could involve diversifying SEO efforts across multiple platforms and staying up-to-date on best practices for each one.

The increased focus on high-quality search results emphasizes the need to create valuable, user-focused content that meets the needs of the target audience.

SEO pros must prioritize informative, engaging, trustworthy content that meets search engine algorithms and user expectations.

Remain flexible, adaptable, and proactive to navigate these shifts. Keeping a pulse on industry trends, user behaviors, and competing search engine strategies will be key for successful SEO campaigns.


Featured Image: Tada Images/Shutterstock



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How To Drive Pipeline With A Silo-Free Strategy

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How To Drive Pipeline With A Silo-Free Strategy

When it comes to B2B strategy, a holistic approach is the only approach. 

Revenue organizations usually operate with siloed teams, and often expect a one-size-fits-all solution (usually buying clicks with paid media). 

However, without cohesive brand, infrastructure, and pipeline generation efforts, they’re pretty much doomed to fail. 

It’s just like rowing crew, where each member of the team must synchronize their movements to propel the boat forward – successful B2B marketing requires an integrated strategy. 

So if you’re ready to ditch your disjointed marketing efforts and try a holistic approach, we’ve got you covered.

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Join us on May 15, for an insightful live session with Digital Reach Agency on how to craft a compelling brand and PMF. 

We’ll walk through the critical infrastructure you need, and the reliances and dependences of the core digital marketing disciplines.

Key takeaways from this webinar:

  • Thinking Beyond Traditional Silos: Learn why traditional marketing silos are no longer viable and how they spell doom for modern revenue organizations.
  • How To Identify and Fix Silos: Discover actionable strategies for pinpointing and sealing the gaps in your marketing silos. 
  • The Power of Integration: Uncover the secrets to successfully integrating brand strategy, digital infrastructure, and pipeline generation efforts.

Ben Childs, President and Founder of Digital Reach Agency, and Jordan Gibson, Head of Growth at Digital Reach Agency, will show you how to seamlessly integrate various elements of your marketing strategy for optimal results.

Don’t make the common mistake of using traditional marketing silos – sign up now and learn what it takes to transform your B2B go-to-market.

You’ll also get the opportunity to ask Ben and Jordan your most pressing questions, following the presentation.

And if you can’t make it to the live event, register anyway and we’ll send you a recording shortly after the webinar. 

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Why Big Companies Make Bad Content

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Why Big Companies Make Bad Content

It’s like death and taxes: inevitable. The bigger a company gets, the worse its content marketing becomes.

HubSpot teaching you how to type the shrug emoji or buy bitcoin stock. Salesforce sharing inspiring business quotes. GoDaddy helping you use Bing AI, or Zendesk sharing catchy sales slogans.

Judged by content marketing best practice, these articles are bad.

They won’t resonate with decision-makers. Nobody will buy a HubSpot license after Googling “how to buy bitcoin stock.” It’s the very definition of vanity traffic: tons of visits with no obvious impact on the business.

So why does this happen?

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I did a double-take the first time I discovered this article on the HubSpot blog.

There’s an obvious (but flawed) answer to this question: big companies are inefficient.

As companies grow, they become more complicated, and writing good, relevant content becomes harder. I’ve experienced this firsthand:

  • extra rounds of legal review and stakeholder approval creeping into processes.
  • content watered down to serve an ever-more generic “brand voice”.
  • growing misalignment between search and content teams.
  • a lack of content leadership within the company as early employees leave.
Why Big Companies Make Bad ContentWhy Big Companies Make Bad Content
As companies grow, content workflows can get kinda… complicated.

Similarly, funded companies have to grow, even when they’re already huge. Content has to feed the machine, continually increasing traffic… even if that traffic never contributes to the bottom line.

There’s an element of truth here, but I’ve come to think that both these arguments are naive, and certainly not the whole story.

It is wrong to assume that the same people that grew the company suddenly forgot everything they once knew about content, and wrong to assume that companies willfully target useless keywords just to game their OKRs.

Instead, let’s assume that this strategy is deliberate, and not oversight. I think bad content—and the vanity traffic it generates—is actually good for business.

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There are benefits to driving tons of traffic, even if that traffic never directly converts. Or put in meme format:

Why Big Companies Make Bad ContentWhy Big Companies Make Bad Content

Programmatic SEO is a good example. Why does Dialpad create landing pages for local phone numbers?

1714584366 91 Why Big Companies Make Bad Content1714584366 91 Why Big Companies Make Bad Content

Why does Wise target exchange rate keywords?

1714584366 253 Why Big Companies Make Bad Content1714584366 253 Why Big Companies Make Bad Content

Why do we have a list of most popular websites pages?

1714584367 988 Why Big Companies Make Bad Content1714584367 988 Why Big Companies Make Bad Content

As this Twitter user points out, these articles will never convert…

…but they don’t need to.

Every published URL and targeted keyword is a new doorway from the backwaters of the internet into your website. It’s a chance to acquire backlinks that wouldn’t otherwise exist, and an opportunity to get your brand in front of thousands of new, otherwise unfamiliar people.

These benefits might not directly translate into revenue, but over time, in aggregate, they can have a huge indirect impact on revenue. They can:

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  • Strengthen domain authority and the search performance of every other page on the website.
  • Boost brand awareness, and encourage serendipitous interactions that land your brand in front of the right person at the right time.
  • Deny your competitors traffic and dilute their share of voice.

These small benefits become more worthwhile when multiplied across many hundreds or thousands of pages. If you can minimize the cost of the content, there is relatively little downside.

What about topical authority?

“But what about topical authority?!” I hear you cry. “If you stray too far from your area of expertise, won’t rankings suffer for it?”

I reply simply with this screenshot of Forbes’ “health” subfolder, generating almost 4 million estimated monthly organic pageviews:

1714584367 695 Why Big Companies Make Bad Content1714584367 695 Why Big Companies Make Bad Content

And big companies can minimize cost. For large, established brands, the marginal cost of content creation is relatively low.

Many companies scale their output through networks of freelancer writers, avoiding the cost of fully loaded employees. They have established, efficient processes for research, briefing, editorial review, publication and maintenance. The cost of an additional “unit” of content—or ten, or a hundred—is not that great, especially relative to other marketing channels.

There is also relatively little opportunity cost to consider: the fact that energy spent on “vanity” traffic could be better spent elsewhere, on more business-relevant topics.

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In reality, many of the companies engaging in this strategy have already plucked the low-hanging fruit and written almost every product-relevant topic. There are a finite number of high traffic, high relevance topics; blog consistently for a decade and you too will reach these limits.

On top of that, the HubSpots and Salesforces of the world have very established, very efficient sales processes. Content gating, lead capture and scoring, and retargeting allow them to put very small conversion rates to relatively good use.

1714584367 376 Why Big Companies Make Bad Content1714584367 376 Why Big Companies Make Bad Content

Even HubSpot’s article on Bitcoin stock has its own relevant call-to-action—and for HubSpot, building a database of aspiring investors is more valuable than it sounds, because…

The bigger a company grows, the bigger its audience needs to be to continue sustaining that growth rate.

Companies generally expand their total addressable market (TAM) as they grow, like HubSpot broadening from marketing to sales and customer success, launching new product lines for new—much bigger—audiences. This means the target audience for their content marketing grows alongside.

As Peep Laja put its:

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But for the biggest companies, this principle is taken to an extreme. When a company gears up to IPO, its target audience expands to… pretty much everyone.

This was something Janessa Lantz (ex-HubSpot and dbt Labs) helped me understand: the target audience for a post-IPO company is not just end users, but institutional investors, market analysts, journalists, even regular Jane investors.

These are people who can influence the company’s worth in ways beyond simply buying a subscription: they can invest or encourage others to invest and dramatically influence the share price. These people are influenced by billboards, OOH advertising and, you guessed it, seemingly “bad” content showing up whenever they Google something.

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You can think of this as a second, additional marketing funnel for post-IPO companies:

Illustration: When companies IPO, the traditional marketing funnel is accompanied by a second funnel. Website visitors contribute value through stock appreciation, not just revenue.Illustration: When companies IPO, the traditional marketing funnel is accompanied by a second funnel. Website visitors contribute value through stock appreciation, not just revenue.

These visitors might not purchase a software subscription when they see your article in the SERP, but they will notice your brand, and maybe listen more attentively the next time your stock ticker appears on the news.

They won’t become power users, but they might download your eBook and add an extra unit to the email subscribers reported in your S1.

They might not contribute revenue now, but they will in the future: in the form of stock appreciation, or becoming the target audience for a future product line.

Vanity traffic does create value, but in a form most content marketers are not used to measuring.

If any of these benefits apply, then it makes sense to acquire them for your company—but also to deny them to your competitors.

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SEO is an arms race: there are a finite number of keywords and topics, and leaving a rival to claim hundreds, even thousands of SERPs uncontested could very quickly create a headache for your company.

SEO can quickly create a moat of backlinks and brand awareness that can be virtually impossible to challenge; left unchecked, the gap between your company and your rival can accelerate at an accelerating pace.

Pumping out “bad” content and chasing vanity traffic is a chance to deny your rivals unchallenged share of voice, and make sure your brand always has a seat at the table.

Final thoughts

These types of articles are miscategorized—instead of thinking of them as bad content, it’s better to think of them as cheap digital billboards with surprisingly great attribution.

Big companies chasing “vanity traffic” isn’t an accident or oversight—there are good reasons to invest energy into content that will never convert. There is benefit, just not in the format most content marketers are used to.

This is not an argument to suggest that every company should invest in hyper-broad, high-traffic keywords. But if you’ve been blogging for a decade, or you’re gearing up for an IPO, then “bad content” and the vanity traffic it creates might not be so bad.

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