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Oracle Wins in TikTok Takeover Race, Though Technical Questions Remain

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oracle wins in tiktok takeover race though technical questions remain

With the White House’s September 15th (or 20th) deadline looming, it looks as though TikTok will remain in operation in the US, with a consortium bid, lead by enterprise software giant Oracle, named on Sunday as the preferred partner by TikTok’s parent company ByteDance.

As reported by The Wall Street Journal:

“Oracle [has] won the bidding for the US operations of the video-sharing app TikTok, a person familiar with the matter said. […] Oracle is set to be announced as TikTok’s “trusted tech partner” in the U.S., and the deal is likely not to be structured as an outright sale, the person said.”

Microsoft officially confirmed that it was out of the running for TikTok earlier in the day, with short statement posted on the Microsoft blog.

ByteDance let us know today they would not be selling TikTok’s US operations to Microsoft. We are confident our proposal would have been good for TikTok’s users, while protecting national security interests.”

Microsoft noted that it was focused on improving the platform’s security measures, addressing user privacy concerns, and combating disinformation:

“We look forward to seeing how the service evolves in these important areas.”

The statement seemed pointed towards key issues that maybe Microsoft doesn’t believe the Oracle-lead bid will be as well-suited to address. But ByteDance chose not to go with the Microsoft plan – which sets up a very interesting scenario for the future of the fast-growing video app.

Of specific interest is how TikTok will now work under its new ownership, once all the details are established – because also on Sunday, a report in the South China Morning Post explained that due to the Chinese Government’s new regulations restricting the sale of technological advancements to foreign companies, TikTok’s algorithms will not be included in the deal.

As per SCMP:

“[ByteDance] will not hand out source code to any US buyer, but the technology team of TikTok in the US can develop a new algorithm,” according to a source. The source, who did not want to be identified, said ByteDance had notified US authorities and potential bidders of the decision.”

If this is correct, then it seems that Oracle and its consortium partners will essentially be paying for the TikTok brand name, and access to its 100 million+ monthly active users in the US. 

What the impact of not including TikTok’s algorithms would be is difficult to say – some have suggested that TikTok, without its powerful machine learning system, will “wither and die“, while others expect that building a similar system, on top of its current base, won’t be so complex.

But it doesn’t seem like the ideal starting point for a non-social media company to be wading into – Oracle has no experience in managing social platforms, while its investment firm partners in its TikTok bid will be focused on revenue, and you would expect, will be keen to monetize the platform as much and as fast as possible in order to maximize their return.

And while it may seem like it can’t be that complex to formulate an algorithm based on the current TikTok base, there’s a lot that’s gone into the app’s success. TikTok’s rapid growth was built on the back of ByteDance’s years of experience in creating other social networks in China, including the Chinese-only version of TikTok, called ‘Douyin’, which was a huge success before they even considered launching TikTok in the US.

Douyin

Indeed, Douyin was launched in 2016, two full years before ByteDance purchased and re-branded Musical.ly as TikTok in western markets in August 2018. In those two years, ByteDance had been able to establish key learnings on what works, what resonates, and formulate its algorithms based on millions of people already engaging within the app.

That gave TikTok a massive jump start – so while the system may appear fairly basic, and it may seem like another company will be able to work out a recommendation algorithm that’s close enough to be viable, a lot more work has gone into developing TikTok’s systems than many expect.

But of course, Oracle and Co. know this, this is not new information. Yet, they’re still willing to go ahead. There must be some level of confidence that they’ll come out on top here, that they can progress, in limited partnership with ByteDance, and build a successful platform.

Will that happen? I wouldn’t bet on it.

That’s not to say TikTok is doomed, it could be fine, it could work out okay. But various examples suggest that this will not be smooth sailing, and while TikTok still continues to grow and become a bigger platform, it’s not too big to fail. Definitely not.

Vine, which was essentially the precursor to TikTok had more than 200 million active users at peak, but it failed because parent company Twitter couldn’t work out an equitable monetization process in order to keep its top creators from migrating to YouTube and Instagram instead. Twitter’s management is obviously very experienced in social media and maximizing engagement, it had a huge knowledge base of people who knew the field inside and out. Yet that wasn’t enough to keep Vine running – and worth noting, Vine founder Dom Hoffman has made paying creators a top priority with his new app Byte, which he launched earlier this year.    

Snapchat is another platform that almost lost out by ignoring creators for years, before eventually coming around and refocusing its efforts on establishing a more equitable partnership-type system, which now ensures that top users are compensated and motivated to maintain engagement, helping to maximize usage. 

TikTok has also acknowledged the importance of such with its Creator Fund program, through which it plans to pay out a billion dollars in the next three years to its top creators.

TikTok Creator Fund

But that program is already facing problems, with the first round of participants citing poor payout amounts and impacts on their reach, which some have speculated is due to TikTok limiting their viewership in order to reduce payout amounts.

This is a complex area, that will take experience and expertise to manage. And while TikTok definitely has the experience in ex-YouTube exec Vanessa Pappas, I can’t help but think that Oracle is not the best fit for the company in this respect.

Microsoft might not be either, but LinkedIn has continued to grow under its ownership. At least it has some base of knowledge in this area to tap into.

If the new TikTok team can’t work out the key algorithm details, can’t evolve its monetization programs, and can’t, essentially, learn from the mistakes that other platforms have made in the past, it will fall flat. That might be difficult to envision now – especially with TikTok once again leading the app download charts in August. But it can, absolutely fail. And even with those great download stats, in 2020, who knows what they truly represent?

Social media usage is way up on normal amounts as people look for distractions during the various lockdowns and in replacement of their normal social gatherings and entertainment events. TikTok’s numbers are clearly being inflated beyond what’s normal because of this – so in normal times, how many people will be using TikTok as much? 

And with new ownership that’s less familiar with dealing with the ebbs and flows of social platform engagement, can it overcome these key challenges and still establish itself as a key player in social media space?

As noted, there are still many technical details to be clarified yet, so no one knows for sure how it will all play out. But there are many moving parts, and various potential pitfalls that could end up derailing the app. 

Socialmediatoday.com

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Paris mayor to stop using ‘global sewer’ X

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Hidalgo called Twitter a 'vast global sewer'

Hidalgo called Twitter a ‘vast global sewer’ – Copyright POOL/AFP Leon Neal

Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo said on Monday she was quitting Elon Musk’s social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, which she described as a “global sewer” and a tool to disrupt democracy.

“I’ve made the decision to leave X,” Hidalgo said in an op-ed in French newspaper Le Monde. “X has in recent years become a weapon of mass destruction of our democracies”, she wrote.

The 64-year-old Socialist, who unsuccessfully stood for the presidency in 2022, joined Twitter as it was then known in 2009 and has been a frequent user of the platform.

She accused X of promoting “misinformation”, “anti-Semitism and racism.”

“The list of abuses is endless”, she added. “This media has become a vast global sewer.”

Since Musk took over Twitter in 2022, a number of high-profile figures said they were leaving the popular social platform, but there has been no mass exodus.

Several politicians including EU industry chief Thierry Breton have announced that they are opening accounts on competing networks in addition to maintaining their presence on X.

The City of Paris account will remain on X, the mayor’s office told AFP.

By contrast, some organisations have taken the plunge, including the US public radio network NPR, or the German anti-discrimination agency.

Hidalgo has regularly faced personal attacks on social media including Twitter, as well as sometimes criticism over the lack of cleanliness and security in Paris.

In the latest furore, she has faced stinging attacks over an October trip to the French Pacific territories of New Caledonia and French Polynesia that was not publicised at the time and that she extended with a two-week personal vacation.

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Meta Highlights Key Platform Manipulation Trends in Latest ‘Adversarial Threat Report’

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Meta Highlights Key Platform Manipulation Trends in Latest ‘Adversarial Threat Report’

While talk of a possible U.S.  ban of TikTok has been tempered of late, concerns still linger around the app, and the way that it could theoretically be used by the Chinese Government to implement varying forms of data tracking and messaging manipulation in Western regions.

The latter was highlighted again this week, when Meta released its latest “Adversarial Threat Report,” which includes an overview of Meta’s latest detections, as well as a broader summary of its efforts throughout the year.

And while the data shows that Russia and Iran remain the most common source regions for coordinated manipulation programs, China is third on that list, with Meta shutting down almost 5,000 Facebook profiles linked to a Chinese-based manipulation program in Q3 alone.

As explained by Meta:

“We removed 4,789 Facebook accounts for violating our policy against coordinated inauthentic behavior. This network originated in China and targeted the United States. The individuals behind this activity used basic fake accounts with profile pictures and names copied from elsewhere on the internet to post and befriend people from around the world. They posed as Americans to post the same content across different platforms. Some of these accounts used the same name and profile picture on Facebook and X (formerly Twitter). We removed this network before it was able to gain engagement from authentic communities on our apps.”

Meta says that this group aimed to sway discussion around both U.S. and China policy by both sharing news stories, and engaging with posts related to specific issues.

“They also posted links to news articles from mainstream US media and reshared Facebook posts by real people, likely in an attempt to appear more authentic. Some of the reshared content was political, while other covered topics like gaming, history, fashion models, and pets. Unusually, in mid-2023 a small portion of this network’s accounts changed names and profile pictures from posing as Americans to posing as being based in India when they suddenly began liking and commenting on posts by another China-origin network focused on India and Tibet.”

Meta further notes that it took down more Coordinated Inauthentic Behavior (CIB) groups from China than any other region in 2023, reflecting the rising trend of Chinese operators looking to infiltrate Western networks.  

“The latest operations typically posted content related to China’s interests in different regions worldwide. For example, many of them praised China, some of them defended its record on human rights in Tibet and Xinjiang, others attacked critics of the Chinese government around the world, and posted about China’s strategic rivalry with the U.S. in Africa and Central Asia.”

Google, too, has repeatedly removed large clusters of YouTube accounts of Chinese origin that had been seeking to build audiences in the app, in order to then seed pro-China sentiment.

The largest coordinated group identified by Google is an operation known as “Dragonbridge” which has long been the biggest originator of manipulative efforts across its apps.

As you can see in this chart, Google removed more than 50,000 instances of Dragonbridge activity across YouTube, Blogger and AdSense in 2022 alone, underlining the persistent efforts of Chinese groups to sway Western audiences.

So these groups, whether they’re associated with the CCP or not, are already looking to infiltrate Western-based networks. Which underlines the potential threat of TikTok in the same respect, given that it’s controlled by a Chinese owner, and therefore likely more directly accessible to these operators.

That’s partly why TikTok is already banned on government-owned devices in most regions, and why cybersecurity experts continue to sound the alarm about the app, because if the above figures reflect the level of activity that non-Chinese platforms are already seeing, you can only imagine that, as TikTok’s influence grows, it too will be high on the list of distribution for the same material.

And we don’t have the same level of transparency into TikTok’s enforcement efforts, nor do we have a clear understanding of parent company ByteDance’s links to the CCP.

Which is why the threat of a possible TikTok ban remains, and will linger for some time yet, and could still spill over if there’s a shift in U.S./China relations.

One other point of note from Meta’s Adversarial Threat Report is its summary of AI usage for such activity, and how it’s changing over time.

X owner Elon Musk has repeatedly pointed to the rise of generative AI as a key vector for increased bot activity, because spammers will be able to create more complex, harder to detect bot accounts through such tools. That’s why X is pushing towards payment models as a means to counter bot profile mass production.

And while Meta does agree that AI tools will enable threat actors to create larger volumes of convincing content, it also says that it hasn’t seen evidence “that it will upend our industry’s efforts to counter covert influence operations” at this stage.

Meta also makes this interesting point:

“For sophisticated threat actors, content generation hasn’t been a primary challenge. They rather struggle with building and engaging authentic audiences they seek to influence. This is why we have focused on identifying adversarial behaviors and tactics used to drive engagement among real people. Disrupting these behaviors early helps to ensure that misleading AI content does not play a role in covert influence operations. Generative AI is also unlikely to change this dynamic.”

So it’s not just content that they need, but interesting, engaging material, and because generative AI is based on everything that’s come before, it’s not necessarily built to establish new trends, which would then help these bot accounts build an audience.

These are some interesting notes on the current threat landscape, and how coordinated groups are still looking to use digital platforms to spread their messaging. Which will likely never stop, but it is worth noting where these groups originate from, and what that means for related discussion.

You can read Meta’s Q3 “Adversarial Threat Report” here.



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US judge halts pending TikTok ban in Montana

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TikTok use has continued to grow apace despite a growing number of countries banning the app from government devices

TikTok use has continued to grow apace despite a growing number of countries banning the app from government devices. — © POOL/AFP Liam McBurney

A federal judge on Thursday temporarily blocked a ban on TikTok set to come into effect next year in Montana, saying the popular video sharing app was likely to win its pending legal challenge.

US District Court Judge Donald Molloy placed the injunction on the ban until the case, originally filed by TikTok in May, has been ruled on its merits.

Molloy deemed it likely TikTok and its users will win, since it appeared the Montana law not only violates free speech rights but runs counter to the fact that foreign policy matters are the exclusive domain of the federal government.

“The current record leaves little doubt that Montana’s legislature and attorney general were more interested in targeting China’s ostensible role in TikTok than they with protecting Montana consumers,” Molloy said in the ruling.

The app is owned by Chinese firm ByteDance and has been accused by a wide swathe of US politicians of being under Beijing’s tutelage, something the company furiously denies.

Montana’s law says the TikTok ban will become void if the app is acquired by a company incorporated in a country not designated by the United States as a foreign adversary.

TikTok had argued that the unprecedented ban violates constitutionally protected right to free speech.

The prohibition signed into law by Republican Governor Greg Gianforte is seen as a legal test for a national ban of the Chinese-owned platform, something lawmakers in Washington are increasingly calling for.

Montana’s ban would be the first to come into effect in the United States – Copyright AFP Kirill KUDRYAVTSEV

The ban would make it a violation each time “a user accesses TikTok, is offered the ability to access TikTok, or is offered the ability to download TikTok.”

Each violation is punishable by a $10,000 fine every day it takes place.

Under the law, Apple and Google will have to remove TikTok from their app stores.

State political leaders have “trampled on the free speech of hundreds of thousands of Montanans who use the app to express themselves, gather information, and run their small business in the name of anti-Chinese sentiment,” ACLU Montana policy director Keegan Medrano said after the bill was signed.

The law is yet another skirmish in duels between TikTok and many western governments, with the app already banned on government devices in the United States, Canada and several countries in Europe.

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