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Here’s the Only SEO Guarantee That’s Not a Scam

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Here’s the Only SEO Guarantee That’s Not a Scam

SEO guarantees are one of the biggest tools agency sales teams use to turn prospects into clients. But they can often be scams or promise results that are achieved unethically.

For instance, here’s a popular SEO guarantee: 

And another possibly too-good-to-be-true guarantee: 

Example of an SEO performance guarantee  offering first page ranking in 90 days or you don't pay.Example of an SEO performance guarantee  offering first page ranking in 90 days or you don't pay.

Not to mention this oh-so-safe and completely risk-free guarantee offering a “huge amount” of “naturel” backlinks 🙄 

Example of an SEO guarantee for first position rankings in 30 days through backlink services.Example of an SEO guarantee for first position rankings in 30 days through backlink services.

Sarcasm aside, I get it. 

As a business owner, guarantees like this offer peace of mind that your limited marketing budget won’t be wasted. So, here’s everything you need to know to avoid the risky types of SEO guarantees that are nothing more than thinly veiled scams. 

I’ll also share the only type of SEO performance guarantee that’s not a scam so keep your eyes peeled. 

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In fact, it’s the only lawyer-approved SEO guarantee I’ve ever come across.

Although there is at least one legitimate option for guaranteed SEO services (that we share below), you really should avoid most like the plague. Here are four reasons why. 

1. Rankings cannot be guaranteed, under any circumstances

If this article had a catchphrase it would be “what cannot be controlled, cannot be guaranteed.” 

With paid ads, you can spend more to bump your ad to the top of search results instantly. But, SEO rankings are earned, usually over a long period of time. 

They are 100% at the discretion of the search engine and no SEO provider can predictably manipulate these. Nor can you throw more money at the problem. SEO simply doesn’t work this way. 

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Google warns business owners about this: 

Google's advice to business owners confirming SEO rankings cannot be guaranteed.Google's advice to business owners confirming SEO rankings cannot be guaranteed.

Anyone who guarantees rankings is, at best, over-confident in their ability or, at worst, straight-up lying to you. 

2. Fast results often mean dangerous or unethical tactics are used

There are no shortcuts to earning SEO results legitimately. SEO is, and has always been, a long-term growth channel that compounds over time. 

The most common way people earn short-term results is by using black hat SEO tactics. 

These tactics are aimed at manipulating search algorithms to rank content higher. They also often violate search engine policies and can lead to penalties or your site being blacklisted altogether. 

In my opinion, business owners who try to minimize their financial risk by using a low-cost, guaranteed SEO service are exposing themselves to far greater risks. Fear of losing money in the short term is a short-sighted way to think about SEO. 

For instance, what’s worse? 

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Scenario A (no SEO guarantee)
You invest in an SEO service without a guarantee. The campaign runs at a loss initially since you don’t start seeing results until month 6. But by month 12, you’ve made your money back and also received a decent return.

Scenario B (with a guarantee)
You invest in an SEO service with a guarantee that you’ll rank on page 1 in 30 days, or you get your money back. Within 30 days you rank on the first page of Google for some keywords (i.e., the guarantee is met). But, a few months later your site is penalized, and you lose all your SEO performance.

Obviously, the answer is scenario B. 

For example, here’s a site that has experienced multiple traffic losses until it was eventually penalized in early 2024. It will be very difficult for this site to overcome the penalty and grow. 

The performance graph of a penalized website in Ahrefs Site Explorer.The performance graph of a penalized website in Ahrefs Site Explorer.

Most business owners don’t think this far ahead when shopping for SEO so they often pass up the agencies that deliver results similar to scenario A. 

In scenario B, since the guarantee has technically been met, there’s no chance you’ll be getting your money back or growing your business. It’s also likely that you need to invest in rebuilding your website on a new domain that has not been penalized by search engines. 

So when you hear about guaranteed SEO results being scams, this is why. 

Learning how a service provider delivers their service can save you from far bigger risks and greater financial losses in the long run. 

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3. Guaranteed SEO results probably won’t deliver a return on investment

SEO, just like any other marketing channel, needs to provide a return on investment (ROI) to be effective. You put money in, and you’re supposed to get more money out when it’s done right. 

While guaranteed SEO results sound great in theory, when you dig a little deeper it’s often the case that these results are based on: 

  • Keywords unrelated to your business
  • Keywords with very little to no search volume
  • Keywords with informational search intent (that won’t deliver leads)

In short, the types of keyword rankings that are guaranteed usually won’t lead to more conversions, can diminish your quality of leads, and won’t deliver an ROI. 

The keywords that do grow your business are often more competitive and take longer to rank for. There’s simply no way to shortcut the process, so performance for these keywords likely won’t be guaranteed. 

Another consideration is that most SEO guarantees only focus on vanity metrics. Vanity metrics sound good on paper, but they don’t grow your business or allow you to make better decisions. 

Rankings won’t feed your family. Neither will traffic. 

So, if you’re considering using a guaranteed SEO service provider because you think it’s the best way to see a return on investment, think again if they only guarantee vanity metrics. 

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4. Initial results do not guarantee continued success

SEO is not a cheap service. 

Most business owners don’t even consider the biggest risk (until it’s too late): the financial implications of signing a long-term contract based on a short-term guarantee. 

I’ve seen a lot go wrong in this scenario. 

For instance, let’s say you sign a 12-month contract with a guarantee like “first page rankings in 30 days or you get your money back.” 

If your service provider ranks your website for a single keyword, any keyword, on the first page of Google they’ve technically met the guarantee. And it doesn’t even matter how long your site holds this position. For instance, this page ranked on the first page of Google results for less than a day: 

Example of a webpage ranking on the first page of Google results for less than one day.Example of a webpage ranking on the first page of Google results for less than one day.

It also doesn’t matter what happens after the 31st day. The guarantee doesn’t cover you for any of the following after it’s been met: 

  • Performance plateau
  • Performance losses
  • Site penalties

You might even pay for the remaining eleven months without the service provider completing further work on your website. 

An extreme example of how things can go wrong is the website conch-house.com. This website scraped content from Amazon and published 6,000 posts a day. It was doing shady things to begin with. But, in the space of two months, it grew to over 6 million monthly users and just under $20,000 in revenue per day.

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And during its third month in this peak performance period, it was penalized and blacklisted by Google. 

Here’s what the traffic graph looked like: 

Conch-House.com's SEO performance graph from Ahrefs' Site Explorer.Conch-House.com's SEO performance graph from Ahrefs' Site Explorer.

Hypothetically, the results of this website would have met most SEO guarantees like: 

  • Rank #1 in 90 days or less
  • First-page in 30 days, guarantees
  • Explode your traffic in 60 days

It’s too bad it couldn’t sustain its performance in the long run due to the spammy tactics it used to grow. 

TL;DR

Don’t sign a long-term contract on a short-term guarantee. There are too many loopholes and technicalities that aren’t in the favor of business owners. 

If you choose an SEO provider that uses unethical tactics to grow your website quickly, you can also be exposed to far greater risks that completely sacrifice your future performance. 

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There’s only one type of SEO guarantee I’ve seen that’s legally sound and not a scam. I may be biased here because my lawyer drafted it for my consultancy. 

As a service provider, I wanted to offer a “peace of mind guarantee” to my clients. But it’s difficult to do that ethically and with full transparency. 

Here’s an example of what we settled on: 

Example of a legitimate SEO performance guarantee written by a lawyer as part of a terms of service contract.Example of a legitimate SEO performance guarantee written by a lawyer as part of a terms of service contract.

What does this type of guarantee offer that most others don’t?

  • It holds the service provider accountable for delivering relevant results, or they work for free.
  • It has long-term performance baked into it.
  • It considers all metrics that indicate SEO performance, including organic revenue.
  • It specifically excludes granular results based on vanity metrics.
  • It clearly and transparently communicates what is and what isn’t covered.
  • It isn’t based on loopholes or rankings for specific keywords with no business value.
  • It has been written and approved by an SEO-savvy lawyer.

My favorite part is that it doesn’t assume that a service provider can control specific SEO results. 

Rather, it implicitly acknowledges that rankings and organic traffic improvements will be byproducts of the services—as they should be. 

Legitimate and trustworthy SEO service providers have the ability to take your business’ growth to the next level. Here’s what to look for when choosing a trustworthy SEO provider. 

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They focus on growing your business

A good SEO provider will align their strategies with your core business goals and measure SEO success according to the metrics that matter to you. These can include:

  • Conversions
  • Leads
  • Sales
  • Revenue
  • Profit
  • ROI

Unlike rankings and traffic, these are not vanity metrics. 

They have a track record of delivering long-term results

A track record of success is often more important than a guarantee. An agency with many case studies of successful results or testimonials from happy clients is often more trustworthy than one offering a guarantee. 

In particular, when evaluating an SEO provider’s results, look for: 

  • The number of success stories: More is obviously better!
  • Long-term projects spanning multiple years: This is a great indicator of client happiness.
  • Proof of ROI, revenue, or sales increases: Look for results that aren’t just vanity metrics.
  • The average length of time until ROI was earned: Get a realistic sense of how long results take to achieve.
  • Services they included: Get a feel for what’s included in their services and their methodology.

I also recommend going deeper than face value by verifying the performance claims in third party tools. For example, you can use Ahrefs’ Site Explorer to verify: 

  • Organic traffic growth
  • Traffic value growth
  • Backlink growth
  • Keyword ranking improvements
  • Improved keyword breadth

You can also use more specific reports like Top Pages to check improvement over a specific period of time. For example, here’s a project where there’s a clear correlation between the addition of more content and organic traffic growth: 

A correlation between the number of new pages published and improvements in organic traffic as displayed in Ahrefs' Top Pages report.A correlation between the number of new pages published and improvements in organic traffic as displayed in Ahrefs' Top Pages report.

So if you’re reading a case study that mentions content creation, this is the graph you need to see to verify the performance claim is true. 

They are transparent about what they do and how they’ll do it

It pays to educate yourself on black hat SEO tactics to avoid.

When chatting with SEO providers about how they approach their SEO services, pay attention to whether they mention things that sound spammy, like: 

  • Building a huge amount of links
  • Having a network of blogs they can guest post on
  • Creating a very large volume of posts in a short time frame
  • Manipulating traffic signals to your content 

Instead, choose an agency or service provider that uses a white hat approach. Check out our guide on white hat SEO to learn how to rank without breaking Google’s rules. 

However, going beyond this, the best agencies will also offer clarity on monthly deliverables for things like the hours worked on a campaign, specific tasks completed, quality delivered, or their efficiency. 

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These things are all 100% within the SEO provider’s control and are also safer elements to include in a guarantee. 

They track and report on performance regularly

Accountability is an essential part of any service. Many SEO agencies and service providers do not hold themselves accountable for delivering long-term results. 

I recommend asking how often you’ll be receiving performance updates and reports. Some agencies have dashboards they can give you access to so you can check progress at any time. Others will hop on a call with you monthly or quarterly to discuss how things are going. 

The most important thing here is that your SEO service provider reports on what you care about. Make sure they consider the actual growth impact they’re having on your business, not just the vanity metrics. 

For example, my favorite metrics to report on in client meetings are ROI or organic revenue (if the tracking and attribution are properly set up). 

Month SEO Spend Organic Revenue SEO ROI % SEO ROI $
Jan $5,375 $114,257 2126% $21.26
Feb $5,375 $344,430 6408% $64.08
Mar $5,375 $425,632 7919% $79.19

These metrics show my clients how much money they’ve made for every dollar invested in my service. 

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As long as these numbers go up, there’s no need to worry about the minutiae of how many keywords you’re ranking for or which keywords changed rankings. That’s all a distraction from what matters most: growing your bottom line. 

Note that as a business owner, you’ll need to share sales data with your SEO service provider if you want them to report on organic revenue and ROI. If you do not provide this data, the best they can report on is the metrics available in SEO tools like Ahrefs. 

In particular, the “organic value” metric is used by many agencies to substitute ROI as it quantifies the dollar value of your SEO traffic. 

Ahrefs' organic traffic value metric.Ahrefs' organic traffic value metric.

Don’t be swindled: Track your SEO results for free with Ahrefs

Tracking your SEO performance can help expose SEO providers who may be trying to pull the wool over your eyes. 

Whether you want to track the performance you were guaranteed or just keep tabs on general SEO visibility, Ahrefs Webmaster Tools can help. It’s a free tool allowing you to track:

  • Technical fixes made 
  • Backlink growth
  • Keyword performance
  • Overall SEO growth

If you have any questions about SEO performance guarantees or how to avoid SEO scams, reach out to me on LinkedIn.

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How Compression Can Be Used To Detect Low Quality Pages

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Compression can be used by search engines to detect low-quality pages. Although not widely known, it's useful foundational knowledge for SEO.

The concept of Compressibility as a quality signal is not widely known, but SEOs should be aware of it. Search engines can use web page compressibility to identify duplicate pages, doorway pages with similar content, and pages with repetitive keywords, making it useful knowledge for SEO.

Although the following research paper demonstrates a successful use of on-page features for detecting spam, the deliberate lack of transparency by search engines makes it difficult to say with certainty if search engines are applying this or similar techniques.

What Is Compressibility?

In computing, compressibility refers to how much a file (data) can be reduced in size while retaining essential information, typically to maximize storage space or to allow more data to be transmitted over the Internet.

TL/DR Of Compression

Compression replaces repeated words and phrases with shorter references, reducing the file size by significant margins. Search engines typically compress indexed web pages to maximize storage space, reduce bandwidth, and improve retrieval speed, among other reasons.

This is a simplified explanation of how compression works:

  • Identify Patterns:
    A compression algorithm scans the text to find repeated words, patterns and phrases
  • Shorter Codes Take Up Less Space:
    The codes and symbols use less storage space then the original words and phrases, which results in a smaller file size.
  • Shorter References Use Less Bits:
    The “code” that essentially symbolizes the replaced words and phrases uses less data than the originals.

A bonus effect of using compression is that it can also be used to identify duplicate pages, doorway pages with similar content, and pages with repetitive keywords.

Research Paper About Detecting Spam

This research paper is significant because it was authored by distinguished computer scientists known for breakthroughs in AI, distributed computing, information retrieval, and other fields.

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Marc Najork

One of the co-authors of the research paper is Marc Najork, a prominent research scientist who currently holds the title of Distinguished Research Scientist at Google DeepMind. He’s a co-author of the papers for TW-BERT, has contributed research for increasing the accuracy of using implicit user feedback like clicks, and worked on creating improved AI-based information retrieval (DSI++: Updating Transformer Memory with New Documents), among many other major breakthroughs in information retrieval.

Dennis Fetterly

Another of the co-authors is Dennis Fetterly, currently a software engineer at Google. He is listed as a co-inventor in a patent for a ranking algorithm that uses links, and is known for his research in distributed computing and information retrieval.

Those are just two of the distinguished researchers listed as co-authors of the 2006 Microsoft research paper about identifying spam through on-page content features. Among the several on-page content features the research paper analyzes is compressibility, which they discovered can be used as a classifier for indicating that a web page is spammy.

Detecting Spam Web Pages Through Content Analysis

Although the research paper was authored in 2006, its findings remain relevant to today.

Then, as now, people attempted to rank hundreds or thousands of location-based web pages that were essentially duplicate content aside from city, region, or state names. Then, as now, SEOs often created web pages for search engines by excessively repeating keywords within titles, meta descriptions, headings, internal anchor text, and within the content to improve rankings.

Section 4.6 of the research paper explains:

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“Some search engines give higher weight to pages containing the query keywords several times. For example, for a given query term, a page that contains it ten times may be higher ranked than a page that contains it only once. To take advantage of such engines, some spam pages replicate their content several times in an attempt to rank higher.”

The research paper explains that search engines compress web pages and use the compressed version to reference the original web page. They note that excessive amounts of redundant words results in a higher level of compressibility. So they set about testing if there’s a correlation between a high level of compressibility and spam.

They write:

“Our approach in this section to locating redundant content within a page is to compress the page; to save space and disk time, search engines often compress web pages after indexing them, but before adding them to a page cache.

…We measure the redundancy of web pages by the compression ratio, the size of the uncompressed page divided by the size of the compressed page. We used GZIP …to compress pages, a fast and effective compression algorithm.”

High Compressibility Correlates To Spam

The results of the research showed that web pages with at least a compression ratio of 4.0 tended to be low quality web pages, spam. However, the highest rates of compressibility became less consistent because there were fewer data points, making it harder to interpret.

Figure 9: Prevalence of spam relative to compressibility of page.

The researchers concluded:

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“70% of all sampled pages with a compression ratio of at least 4.0 were judged to be spam.”

But they also discovered that using the compression ratio by itself still resulted in false positives, where non-spam pages were incorrectly identified as spam:

“The compression ratio heuristic described in Section 4.6 fared best, correctly identifying 660 (27.9%) of the spam pages in our collection, while misidentifying 2, 068 (12.0%) of all judged pages.

Using all of the aforementioned features, the classification accuracy after the ten-fold cross validation process is encouraging:

95.4% of our judged pages were classified correctly, while 4.6% were classified incorrectly.

More specifically, for the spam class 1, 940 out of the 2, 364 pages, were classified correctly. For the non-spam class, 14, 440 out of the 14,804 pages were classified correctly. Consequently, 788 pages were classified incorrectly.”

The next section describes an interesting discovery about how to increase the accuracy of using on-page signals for identifying spam.

Insight Into Quality Rankings

The research paper examined multiple on-page signals, including compressibility. They discovered that each individual signal (classifier) was able to find some spam but that relying on any one signal on its own resulted in flagging non-spam pages for spam, which are commonly referred to as false positive.

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The researchers made an important discovery that everyone interested in SEO should know, which is that using multiple classifiers increased the accuracy of detecting spam and decreased the likelihood of false positives. Just as important, the compressibility signal only identifies one kind of spam but not the full range of spam.

The takeaway is that compressibility is a good way to identify one kind of spam but there are other kinds of spam that aren’t caught with this one signal. Other kinds of spam were not caught with the compressibility signal.

This is the part that every SEO and publisher should be aware of:

“In the previous section, we presented a number of heuristics for assaying spam web pages. That is, we measured several characteristics of web pages, and found ranges of those characteristics which correlated with a page being spam. Nevertheless, when used individually, no technique uncovers most of the spam in our data set without flagging many non-spam pages as spam.

For example, considering the compression ratio heuristic described in Section 4.6, one of our most promising methods, the average probability of spam for ratios of 4.2 and higher is 72%. But only about 1.5% of all pages fall in this range. This number is far below the 13.8% of spam pages that we identified in our data set.”

So, even though compressibility was one of the better signals for identifying spam, it still was unable to uncover the full range of spam within the dataset the researchers used to test the signals.

Combining Multiple Signals

The above results indicated that individual signals of low quality are less accurate. So they tested using multiple signals. What they discovered was that combining multiple on-page signals for detecting spam resulted in a better accuracy rate with less pages misclassified as spam.

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The researchers explained that they tested the use of multiple signals:

“One way of combining our heuristic methods is to view the spam detection problem as a classification problem. In this case, we want to create a classification model (or classifier) which, given a web page, will use the page’s features jointly in order to (correctly, we hope) classify it in one of two classes: spam and non-spam.”

These are their conclusions about using multiple signals:

“We have studied various aspects of content-based spam on the web using a real-world data set from the MSNSearch crawler. We have presented a number of heuristic methods for detecting content based spam. Some of our spam detection methods are more effective than others, however when used in isolation our methods may not identify all of the spam pages. For this reason, we combined our spam-detection methods to create a highly accurate C4.5 classifier. Our classifier can correctly identify 86.2% of all spam pages, while flagging very few legitimate pages as spam.”

Key Insight:

Misidentifying “very few legitimate pages as spam” was a significant breakthrough. The important insight that everyone involved with SEO should take away from this is that one signal by itself can result in false positives. Using multiple signals increases the accuracy.

What this means is that SEO tests of isolated ranking or quality signals will not yield reliable results that can be trusted for making strategy or business decisions.

Takeaways

We don’t know for certain if compressibility is used at the search engines but it’s an easy to use signal that combined with others could be used to catch simple kinds of spam like thousands of city name doorway pages with similar content. Yet even if the search engines don’t use this signal, it does show how easy it is to catch that kind of search engine manipulation and that it’s something search engines are well able to handle today.

Here are the key points of this article to keep in mind:

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  • Doorway pages with duplicate content is easy to catch because they compress at a higher ratio than normal web pages.
  • Groups of web pages with a compression ratio above 4.0 were predominantly spam.
  • Negative quality signals used by themselves to catch spam can lead to false positives.
  • In this particular test, they discovered that on-page negative quality signals only catch specific types of spam.
  • When used alone, the compressibility signal only catches redundancy-type spam, fails to detect other forms of spam, and leads to false positives.
  • Combing quality signals improves spam detection accuracy and reduces false positives.
  • Search engines today have a higher accuracy of spam detection with the use of AI like Spam Brain.

Read the research paper, which is linked from the Google Scholar page of Marc Najork:

Detecting spam web pages through content analysis

Featured Image by Shutterstock/pathdoc

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New Google Trends SEO Documentation

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Google publishes new documentation for how to use Google Trends for search marketing

Google Search Central published new documentation on Google Trends, explaining how to use it for search marketing. This guide serves as an easy to understand introduction for newcomers and a helpful refresher for experienced search marketers and publishers.

The new guide has six sections:

  1. About Google Trends
  2. Tutorial on monitoring trends
  3. How to do keyword research with the tool
  4. How to prioritize content with Trends data
  5. How to use Google Trends for competitor research
  6. How to use Google Trends for analyzing brand awareness and sentiment

The section about monitoring trends advises there are two kinds of rising trends, general and specific trends, which can be useful for developing content to publish on a site.

Using the Explore tool, you can leave the search box empty and view the current rising trends worldwide or use a drop down menu to focus on trends in a specific country. Users can further filter rising trends by time periods, categories and the type of search. The results show rising trends by topic and by keywords.

To search for specific trends users just need to enter the specific queries and then filter them by country, time, categories and type of search.

The section called Content Calendar describes how to use Google Trends to understand which content topics to prioritize.

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Google explains:

“Google Trends can be helpful not only to get ideas on what to write, but also to prioritize when to publish it. To help you better prioritize which topics to focus on, try to find seasonal trends in the data. With that information, you can plan ahead to have high quality content available on your site a little before people are searching for it, so that when they do, your content is ready for them.”

Read the new Google Trends documentation:

Get started with Google Trends

Featured Image by Shutterstock/Luis Molinero

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All the best things about Ahrefs Evolve 2024

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All the best things about Ahrefs Evolve 2024

Hey all, I’m Rebekah and I am your Chosen One to “do a blog post for Ahrefs Evolve 2024”.

What does that entail exactly? I don’t know. In fact, Sam Oh asked me yesterday what the title of this post would be. “Is it like…Ahrefs Evolve 2024: Recap of day 1 and day 2…?” 

Even as I nodded, I couldn’t get over how absolutely boring that sounded. So I’m going to do THIS instead: a curation of all the best things YOU loved about Ahrefs’ first conference, lifted directly from X.

Let’s go!

OUR HUGE SCREEN

CONFERENCE VENUE ITSELF

It was recently named the best new skyscraper in the world, by the way.

 

OUR AMAZING SPEAKER LINEUP – SUPER INFORMATIVE, USEFUL TALKS!

 

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GREAT MUSIC

 

AMAZING GOODIES

 

SELFIE BATTLE

Some background: Tim and Sam have a challenge going on to see who can take the most number of selfies with all of you. Last I heard, Sam was winning – but there is room for a comeback yet!

 

THAT BELL

Everybody’s just waiting for this one.

 

STICKER WALL

AND, OF COURSE…ALL OF YOU!

 

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There’s a TON more content on LinkedIn – click here – but I have limited time to get this post up and can’t quite figure out how to embed LinkedIn posts so…let’s stop here for now. I’ll keep updating as we go along!



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