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There’s No Such Thing as “Accurate” Search Volume

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There’s No Such Thing as “Accurate” Search Volume

I often post my favorite new Ahrefs features on X. And last time I announced our newest addition to Keywords Explorer, someone replied with this:

Which was not the first time I saw us being criticized for the accuracy of our search volume metric.

But here’s the kicker…

There’s NO SUCH THING as an accurate search volume:

  • The volumes in Google Keyword Planner aren’t accurate.
  • The “Impressions” in GSC aren’t accurate either.
  • And the metric itself is just an average of the past data.

I already published a pretty detailed article about the search volume metric back in 2021. But I don’t think too many people have read it.

“Everything that needs to be said has already been said. But since no one was listening, everything must be said again.”

André Gide

So let me address this topic from a whole new angle.

First of all, what do SEOs even mean when they ask for search volumes to be “accurate?”

Well, the less experienced folks just want the metrics in third-party tools to match what they see in Google Keyword Planner (GKP).

But the more experienced ones already know all Google Keyword Planner’s Dirty Secrets:

  • The numbers are rounded annual averages.
  • Those averages are then assigned to “volume buckets.”
  • Keywords with similar meaning are often grouped together and their search volume summed up.

In other words, the search volume numbers that you see in GKP are very imprecise. And once SEOs learn that, they no longer use GKP as their baseline of accuracy.

They use GSC.

Ok. So the numbers in GKP are rounded and bucketed and clustered together and all that. But Google Search Console (GSC) shows you the actual impressions for a given keyword, right?

Well, did you know that a simple rank-tracking tool can easily pollute your GSC impressions?

Think of how many different “robots” might be scraping the search results for a given keyword, and therefore giving you a fairly inaccurate impression of its real (human-driven) search volume.

And besides, in order to see the actual monthly search volume your page has to be ranking at the top 10 for thirty days straight. And it should rank nationwide, just in case the search results might differ based on the location.

On top of that, I’m sure GSC is no different from any other analytics tool in the sense that it might have certain discrepancies in “counting” those impressions. I mean, go compare the “Clicks” you see reported by GSC with your server log files. I bet the numbers won’t match.

How much time do you think would pass between you selecting a certain keyword to rank for and actually having your page rank at the top of Google for it?

According to our old research, it could be anywhere from two months to a year for a newly published page to get to the top. Don’t you think the monthly search volume of a given keyword will change by then?

That’s actually the exact reason why we’ve added search volume forecasting to our Keywords Explorer tool. It uses past data to project what would likely happen to search volume in the next 12 months:

Is it accurate? No.

But does it help to streamline your keyword research and make better decisions? Absolutely.

Let’s do a thought experiment and imagine that there was an SEO tool which would give you a highly precise search volume for any keyword. What would you use it for? Would you be able to accurately predict your search traffic from that keyword?

No!

You can’t know for sure at which position your page will end up ranking. Today it’s #3, tomorrow it’s #5, the day after is #1. Rankings are volatile and you rarely retain a given position for a long enough period of time.

And even if you did: you can’t get precise data on the click-through rate (CTR) of each position in Google. Each SERP is unique, and Google keeps rolling out more and more SERP features that steal clicks away. So even if you knew precisely the search volume of a keyword and the exact position where your page would sit… you still would not be able to calculate the accurate amount of search traffic that you’ll get.

And finally…

Pages don’t rank for a single keyword! Seven years ago we published a study showing that a typical page that ranks at the top of Google for some keyword would actually rank for about a thousand more related keywords.

So what’s the point of trying to gauge your clicks from a single keyword, when you’ll end up ranking for a thousand of them all at the same time?

And the takeaway from all this is…

Here at Ahrefs we spend a tremendous amount of time, effort and resources to make sure our keyword database is in good shape, both in terms of its coverage of existing search queries, and the SEO metrics we give you for each of these keywords.

None of our SEO metrics are “accurate” though. Not search volume, nor keyword difficulty, nor traffic potential, you name it.

But none of them can be.

They’re designed to be “directionally accurate.” They give you an overall idea of the search demand of a given keyword and if it’s a lot higher (or lower) compared to some other keywords which you are considering.

You can’t use those metrics for doing any precise calculations.

But hundreds of thousands of SEO professionals around the world are using these exact metrics to guide their SEO strategies and they get precisely the results that they expect to get.



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Best Practices For Keyword Localization

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Best Practices For Keyword Localization

As brands expand into new international markets, the challenge of running successful PPC campaigns becomes increasingly complex.

Navigating the differences in culture, language, consumer behavior, and market dynamics requires a more nuanced approach than simply translating ads.

For PPC marketers using platforms like Google or Microsoft Ads, it’s critical to adapt campaign strategies for these global audiences.

This article will cover best practices for optimizing international PPC campaigns, with a specific focus on keyword localization.

We’ll explore four key themes that can drive more successful international PPC results:

  • Keyword localization.
  • Geo-specific bid adjustments.
  • Market-specific creative adaptation.
  • Leveraging automation tools for international scaling.

1. Keyword Localization: Translating Intent, Not Just Language

Keyword localization is a cornerstone of international PPC success, but it’s often misunderstood as a simple translation exercise.

When translating keywords from one language to another, it’s not a “2+2=4” equation most of the time.

In reality, it’s much more complex.

Keyword localization involves understanding the intent behind searches and adapting keywords to match the local language, cultural context, and user behavior.

Steps To Effective Keyword Localization

  • Market Research: Before diving into translation, research how consumers in the target country search for products or services. This involves understanding search intent, popular terms, slang, and regional dialects.
  • Translation with a twist: Work with native speakers or linguists familiar with the market. Tools like Google Translate can give you a starting point, but they won’t capture cultural subtleties. Manual keyword research in local search engines is vital.
  • Use local search engines: Google may dominate globally, but other regions may favor different search engines. Baidu in China, Yandex in Russia, and Naver in South Korea have distinct algorithms and keyword trends. Tailor your keywords to the dominant platform in each market.
  • Test and optimize: International markets are fluid. What works in one month might need refinement in the next. Regularly review performance and optimize based on search trends, conversion data, and shifting customer behaviors.

For example, in Spain, the keyword “coches baratos” (cheap cars) may seem like a direct translation of its English counterpart.

However, further research might reveal that “ofertas coches” (car deals) or “vehículos económicos” (affordable vehicles) performs better depending on user intent.

2. Geo-Specific Bid Adjustments: Tailor Bids For Performance By Region

International campaigns are prone to fluctuations in performance, driven by differences in local competition, purchasing power, and user behavior.

Geo-specific bid adjustments allow you to tailor your bidding strategy to the realities of each market, maximizing return on ad spend (ROAS).

Below are some best practices for geo-specific bidding:

  • Analyze Regional Performance: Use data to assess performance on a country or even city level. Look for patterns like higher conversion rates in certain regions and adjust bids accordingly. This is especially important in diverse markets where sub-regions may perform differently, like the UK or Canada.
  • Adjust Bids Based on Currency Value and Buying Power: Regions with lower purchasing power or fluctuating currency values may require different bid strategies. In some markets, a lower cost-per-click (CPC) approach could help maintain profitability.
  • Consider Time Zone Differences: Adjust bids based on peak performance hours in each time zone. A broad international campaign can benefit from time-based adjustments that ensure ads show during peak periods in each country.

For instance, if your campaign targets both New York and Berlin, you may find that your peak performance hours vary drastically, necessitating different bid adjustments to maximize efficiency.

In this instance, it’s likely worth segmenting your campaigns by region to account for maximum return on investment or ROI in each region.

In larger enterprise accounts, most regions have different audience sizes, which require different budgets.

If your brand falls into that category, it may be worth creating a separate Google Ads account per region, which can roll up into one MCC account for easier management.

3. Market-Specific Creative Adaptation: Speak The Local Language Through Ad Copy

One of the most common mistakes in international PPC campaigns is failing to adapt ad creatives to local contexts.

Just as keyword localization requires cultural adaptation, ad creatives must be tuned to resonate with local audiences.

A few approaches to localized creative to think about include:

  • Ad Copy and Messaging: Localize ad copy to reflect cultural preferences, holidays, humor, and common phrases. Avoid literal translations that may miss the mark. Collaborate with local copywriters who understand the nuances of language and sentiment.
  • Visual Adaptations: Imagery that works in one region may not resonate in another. If your ad visuals feature people, clothing, or settings, make sure they align with local norms and expectations.
  • Calls to Action (CTAs): CTAs should be adapted based on local shopping behaviors. In some regions, urgency works well (“Buy Now”), while in others, a softer approach may perform better (“Learn More” or “Discover”).

For example, a successful ad campaign in the US using a humorous tone may need to be entirely rethought for a market like Japan, where subtlety and respect play a bigger role in advertising.

4. Leveraging Automation Tools For International Scaling

Managing international PPC campaigns across multiple markets can quickly become overwhelming.

Automation tools, both native to ad platforms and third-party solutions, can help streamline campaign management while still allowing for localized control.

Automation Tactics To Help Scale International PPC Campaigns

  • Smart Bidding: Utilize Google or Microsoft’s automated bidding strategies tailored to individual market performance. Smart bidding leverages machine learning to optimize bids for conversions or ROAS, adjusting bids based on real-time data.
  • Dynamic Search Ads (DSAs): Dynamic Search Ads can help expand your reach by automatically generating ad headlines based on your website’s content. For international campaigns, ensure that your website is properly localized to ensure the DSAs serve relevant, accurate ads.
  • Automated Rules and Scripts: Set up automated rules or scripts to adjust bids, pause underperforming keywords, or raise budgets during peak times. For example, you might set rules to increase bids during holidays specific to individual regions, like Singles’ Day in China or Diwali in India.

Automation tools should be used to complement your manual efforts, not replace them. While they can help manage large campaigns more efficiently, regular oversight and optimization are still essential.

A Holistic Approach To International PPC Success

Expanding into international PPC campaigns presents both challenges and opportunities.

Success depends on taking a holistic approach that incorporates keyword localization, tailored bidding strategies, localized creatives, and effective use of automation.

By adapting your strategies to each specific market, you’ll be able to tap into the unique search behaviors, cultural nuances, and competitive dynamics of global consumers.

Remember that the global PPC landscape is constantly evolving, and regular monitoring, testing, and optimization will be key to staying ahead of the competition.

Whether you’re managing campaigns in-house or as part of an agency, these best practices will help you optimize your international PPC efforts and drive better performance across borders.

More resources: 


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Google’s AI Overviews Avoid Political Content, New Data Shows

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Google's AI Overviews Avoid Political Content, New Data Shows

Study reveals Google’s cautious approach to AI-generated content in sensitive search results, varying across health, finance, legal, and political topics.

  • Google shows AI Overviews for 50% of YMYL topics, with legal queries triggering them most often.
  • Health and finance AI Overviews frequently include disclaimers urging users to consult professionals.
  • Google avoids generating AI Overviews for sensitive topics like mental health, elections, and specific medications.

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Executive Director Of WordPress Resigns

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WordPress Executive Director Josepha Haden Chomphosy resigns,

Josepha Haden Chomphosy, Executive Director of the WordPress Project, officially announced her resignation, ending a nine-year tenure. This comes just two weeks after Matt Mullenweg launched a controversial campaign against a managed WordPress host, which responded by filing a federal lawsuit against him and Automattic.

She posted an upbeat notice on her personal blog, reaffirming her belief in the open source community as  positive economic force as well as the importance of strong opinions that are “loosely  held.”

She wrote:

“This week marks my last as the Executive Director of the WordPress project. My time with WordPress has transformed me, both as a leader and an advocate. There’s still more to do in our shared quest to secure a self-sustaining future of the open source project that we all love, and my belief in our global community of contributors remains unchanged.

…I still believe that open source is an idea that can transform generations. I believe in the power of a good-hearted group of people. I believe in the importance of strong opinions, loosely held. And I believe the world will always need the more equitable opportunities that well-maintained open source can provide: access to knowledge and learning, easy-to-join peer and business networks, the amplification of unheard voices, and a chance to tap into economic opportunity for those who weren’t born into it.”

Turmoil At WordPress

The resignation comes amidst the backdrop of a conflict between WordPress co-founder Matt Mullenweg and the managed WordPress web host WP Engine, which has brought unprecedented turmoil within the WordPress community, including a federal lawsuit filed by WP Engine accusing Mullenweg of attempted extortion.

Resignation News Was Leaked

The news about the resignation was leaked on October 2nd by the founder of the WordPress news site WP Tavern (now owned by Matt Mullenweg), who tweeted that he had spoken with Josepha that evening, who announced her resignation.

He posted:

“I spoke with Josepha tonight. I can confirm that she’s no longer at Automattic.

She’s working on a statement for the community. She’s in good spirits despite the turmoil.”

Screenshot Of Deleted Tweet

Josepha tweeted the following response the next day:

“Ok, this is not how I expected that news to come to y’all. I apologize that this is the first many of you heard of it. Please don’t speculate about anything.”

Rocky Period For WordPress

While her resignation was somewhat of an open secret it’s still a significant event because of recent events at WordPress, including the resignations of 8.4% of Automattic employees as a result of an offer of a generous severance package to all employees who no longer wished to work  there.

Read the official announcement:

Thank you, WordPress

Featured Image by Shutterstock/Wirestock Creators

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