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Twitter’s Bot-Battling Claims Don’t Add Up Based on Relative User Growth

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Twitter’s Bot-Battling Claims Don’t Add Up Based on Relative User Growth

There’s something that doesn’t add up about Twitter’s claimed usage numbers at present.

As of right now, according to reports from Twitter, the platform is seeing record-high usage, both in terms of users and time spent in the app.

As you can see in this chart, which Elon Musk presented at the Morgan Stanley Tech, Media and Telecommunications Conference in March, as of Q4 22 – the period ending in December last year – Twitter was up to 253 million daily active users.

Musk has also claimed that Twitter’s now exceeding 8 billion total user minutes per day, which means that, on average, Twitter users are spending 31.6 minutes per day in the app.

Which is not radically different from Twitter’s performance updates in times past – Twitter has been steadily growing its daily active user count over time, and was at 237.8 million daily users as of July last year, before Musk took over at the app. Various reports have also indicated that the average Twitter user spends about 30 minutes per day in the app – so it’s not a crazy leap to see Twitter’s usage stats increase, especially given the hype and attention given to Musk’s activities at the app.

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But the total user numbers are interesting when you also consider Musk’s own claims around the number of fake profiles in the app, which his legal team submitted as part of Musk’s effort to get out of his agreement to buy the app last year.

As you’ll recall, in July last year, Elon tried to renege on his $44 billion offer for the app, because based on his team’s analysis, Twitter wasn’t actually worth that much due to the high amount of bot profiles that were included in its active user figures.

Twitter had long held that the number of fake profiles in the app didn’t exceed 5% of its total mDAU count, based on its own sampling, but Musk claimed that it was actually much more, with around 33% of its active profiles being fakes, based on his own research and analysis.

Musk eventually settled on it being a more modest 20%, while noting that it was likely much higher.

Part of Elon’s stated motivation for taking over Twitter was to rid the platform of bots, which he believed had skewed conversation in the app, and at the rates that he was referring to, that would be a significant amount, which could indeed sway topical discussions.

Musk’s plan was to take Twitter private, which would reduce market scrutiny on the app. That would then enable it to address its bot problems without being concerned about the impact on its user count – but since then, and following various claims that Musk has killed bots in the app, which definitely account for at least 5% of its daily actives (equal to 12.65 million accounts), Twitter’s actually added some 15 million more users?

In raw numbers, that would mean that if bots accounted for 20% of Twitter’s mDAU count as Elon claimed (50.6m), Twitter’s actually added 65 million new daily actives since July last year, replacing the bots with real people as Twitter has theoretically eradicated them.

Which is possible, but not very likely when you also look at Twitter’s growth chart over time.

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Twitter mDAU Growth Over Time

As you can see in this chart, Twitter’s user growth has been pretty slow and steady, with a jump in Q2 2022 to 237.8 million mDAU, its final update before Elon took over. If Twitter actually added 65 million more users between Q2 and Q4 last year, that would mean that it replicated almost 3 years worth of growth, within a span of 6 months, its fastest growth rate by a long way.

Again, that could be within the realm of possibility, but it seems like a very rapid acceleration – which means that Twitter is either really, really popular under Elon Musk, it hasn’t removed bot profiles at the rate that it claims, or it’s not actually seeing 253 million active users.

We don’t know for sure, because Twitter no longer has to provide transparency over its calculations, or report its performance updates, as it’s not a publicly listed entity. But it does seem strange that Twitter claims to be eliminating bots, which would bring down its active user count, based on all past metrics, while its active user figures are actually jumping to new highs.

Something doesn’t add up, and it does seem like Elon has decided that Twitter’s bot problems are not as big as they seemed, now that he’s the one in charge at the app. Again, at one stage, he was claiming that 33% of Twitter accounts were bots, which would mean that he would need to eliminate almost 84 million profiles to free the app of bot activity.

But its mDAU number hasn’t gone down, at all, it’s gone up.

Does that mean that millions of bots are still active? That more bots have flocked to the app? Or does it show that many, many more people than ever are now logging into Twitter every day?

Somewhere, there’s a mismatch in the story that Twitter’s presenting.

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And the question I would have for Elon is: ‘What percentage of Twitter’s mDAU count right now is actually bots?’



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Snapchat Explores New Messaging Retention Feature: A Game-Changer or Risky Move?

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Snapchat Explores New Messaging Retention Feature: A Game-Changer or Risky Move?

In a recent announcement, Snapchat revealed a groundbreaking update that challenges its traditional design ethos. The platform is experimenting with an option that allows users to defy the 24-hour auto-delete rule, a feature synonymous with Snapchat’s ephemeral messaging model.

The proposed change aims to introduce a “Never delete” option in messaging retention settings, aligning Snapchat more closely with conventional messaging apps. While this move may blur Snapchat’s distinctive selling point, Snap appears convinced of its necessity.

According to Snap, the decision stems from user feedback and a commitment to innovation based on user needs. The company aims to provide greater flexibility and control over conversations, catering to the preferences of its community.

Currently undergoing trials in select markets, the new feature empowers users to adjust retention settings on a conversation-by-conversation basis. Flexibility remains paramount, with participants able to modify settings within chats and receive in-chat notifications to ensure transparency.

Snapchat underscores that the default auto-delete feature will persist, reinforcing its design philosophy centered on ephemerality. However, with the app gaining traction as a primary messaging platform, the option offers users a means to preserve longer chat histories.

The update marks a pivotal moment for Snapchat, renowned for its disappearing message premise, especially popular among younger demographics. Retaining this focus has been pivotal to Snapchat’s identity, but the shift suggests a broader strategy aimed at diversifying its user base.

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This strategy may appeal particularly to older demographics, potentially extending Snapchat’s relevance as users age. By emulating features of conventional messaging platforms, Snapchat seeks to enhance its appeal and broaden its reach.

Yet, the introduction of message retention poses questions about Snapchat’s uniqueness. While addressing user demands, the risk of diluting Snapchat’s distinctiveness looms large.

As Snapchat ventures into uncharted territory, the outcome of this experiment remains uncertain. Will message retention propel Snapchat to new heights, or will it compromise the platform’s uniqueness?

Only time will tell.

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Catering to specific audience boosts your business, says accountant turned coach

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Catering to specific audience boosts your business, says accountant turned coach

While it is tempting to try to appeal to a broad audience, the founder of alcohol-free coaching service Just the Tonic, Sandra Parker, believes the best thing you can do for your business is focus on your niche. Here’s how she did just that.

When running a business, reaching out to as many clients as possible can be tempting. But it also risks making your marketing “too generic,” warns Sandra Parker, the founder of Just The Tonic Coaching.

“From the very start of my business, I knew exactly who I could help and who I couldn’t,” Parker told My Biggest Lessons.

Parker struggled with alcohol dependence as a young professional. Today, her business targets high-achieving individuals who face challenges similar to those she had early in her career.

“I understand their frustrations, I understand their fears, and I understand their coping mechanisms and the stories they’re telling themselves,” Parker said. “Because of that, I’m able to market very effectively, to speak in a language that they understand, and am able to reach them.” 

“I believe that it’s really important that you know exactly who your customer or your client is, and you target them, and you resist the temptation to make your marketing too generic to try and reach everyone,” she explained.

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“If you speak specifically to your target clients, you will reach them, and I believe that’s the way that you’re going to be more successful.

Watch the video for more of Sandra Parker’s biggest lessons.

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Instagram Tests Live-Stream Games to Enhance Engagement

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Instagram Tests Live-Stream Games to Enhance Engagement

Instagram’s testing out some new options to help spice up your live-streams in the app, with some live broadcasters now able to select a game that they can play with viewers in-stream.

As you can see in these example screens, posted by Ahmed Ghanem, some creators now have the option to play either “This or That”, a question and answer prompt that you can share with your viewers, or “Trivia”, to generate more engagement within your IG live-streams.

That could be a simple way to spark more conversation and interaction, which could then lead into further engagement opportunities from your live audience.

Meta’s been exploring more ways to make live-streaming a bigger consideration for IG creators, with a view to live-streams potentially catching on with more users.

That includes the gradual expansion of its “Stars” live-stream donation program, giving more creators in more regions a means to accept donations from live-stream viewers, while back in December, Instagram also added some new options to make it easier to go live using third-party tools via desktop PCs.

Live streaming has been a major shift in China, where shopping live-streams, in particular, have led to massive opportunities for streaming platforms. They haven’t caught on in the same way in Western regions, but as TikTok and YouTube look to push live-stream adoption, there is still a chance that they will become a much bigger element in future.

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Which is why IG is also trying to stay in touch, and add more ways for its creators to engage via streams. Live-stream games is another element within this, which could make this a better community-building, and potentially sales-driving option.

We’ve asked Instagram for more information on this test, and we’ll update this post if/when we hear back.

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