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Inflation Not Fading Fast Enough for Stock Investors

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Inflation Not Fading Fast Enough for Stock Investors

Investors may have celebrated the end of high inflation too soon. The CPI report shows inflation bouncing higher and thus pushing back the start date for Fed rate cuts. This has the S&P 500 (SPY) coming off recent highs. This begs questions like how much more downside could we see? And when will the bull market get back on track? 44 year investment veteran Steve Reitmeister shares his answers to these questions in this timely commentary including a preview of his top picks to stay ahead of the pack. Read on below for more.

High inflation refuses to “go quietly into the night“.

Instead, the most recent CPI report was too hot which greatly downgraded the odds of a rate cut coming in June or July. With that bond rates went higher on Wednesday and stock prices went lower.

Thursday’s PPI report was a bit tamer helping to ease the mood. But it does cloud the outlook for the market.

So, we will do our best to shine some light on our path forward from here in today’s commentary.

Market Commentary

April started with a very mild sell off which seems quite natural given then rapid pace of gains in Q1. Then just as stocks were bouncing back towards the highs we got served up a unwelcome CPI report on Wednesday that had investors hitting the sell button once again.

Unfortunately, year over year inflation increased from a 3.2% reading last month to 3.5% this time around. Yes, that is the wrong direction as we want to continue on our glide path towards the Fed’s target of 2%.

We all know that inflation rarely moves in a straight line. But this was not the first inflation report above expectations…but it certainly was the most resounding negative that investors could not dismiss.

The nerds out there (like myself) will note that the Sticky Inflation readings got even worse. That reading went up to 5% based upon the month to month change from the previous 4%. There is simply no way the Fed can look at this recent data and decide to lower rates in May…June…and probably not July.

The world of investors most certainly agreed with this notion given the seismic moves in the bond market. Most notable was the 10 year Treasury rate spiking to nearly 4.6% on Wednesday. That cooled down a notch on Thursday given the “slightly” better than expected reading for PPI.

This greatly changes expectations for the timing of the first Fed rate cut. A month ago there was 72% probability of that taking place in June. That is now down to 22%.

Moving out to July that was considered a near slam dunk at 90% odds of lower rates. That is now a coin toss at just 49% likelihood.

Finally, we see the September meeting coming in at 70% odds of lower rates. This all points to investors going over the May 1st Fed testimony with a microscope looking for even the smallest clues of what comes next.

Long story short, I think it is borderline insane for investors to expect new highs for stocks until inflation is better under wraps and certainty increases on the timing of the first rate cut. That points to the recent high of 5,265 for the S&P 500 (SPY) as being the top end of current trading range.

The bottom of that range is a bit less clear. Will investors do more of a consolidation slightly under recent levels? The hearty bounce on Thursday seems to point in that direction. But the longer things go on without a resolution to the matter, the more we could break below the 50 day moving average at 5,105 and perhaps give 5,000 a serious test.

If that scares you, then might I recommend you put your money in the bank rather than the stock market.

The only way you can enjoy the reward of a 27% gain for the S&P 500 since late October is by taking the risk that comes with mild pullbacks and tougher corrections from time to time. Meaning that testing 5,000 or even lower would be a yawn in the history of stock market movements which has improved our net worth considerably over the past few months…years…decades…generations…and so on.

My trading plan is to remain bullish. Just have a better eye towards the value of your positions. If you wouldn’t buy more shares of those stocks today…then perhaps time to sell and add new stocks that you feel have better upside potential.

That also calls for a “buy the dip” mentality as there likely will be more volatility and rough sessions ahead. Those are the times to step in and add shares of your favorite stocks.

All in all, we are moving back to a more normal bull market. Where 2 steps forward and 1 step back is just part of the dance. So, all the more reason to find the beat and dance right along.

What To Do Next?

Discover my current portfolio of 12 stocks packed to the brim with the outperforming benefits found in our exclusive POWR Ratings model. (Nearly 4X better than the S&P 500 going back to 1999)

This includes 5 under the radar small caps recently added with tremendous upside potential.

Plus I have 1 special ETF that is incredibly well positioned to outpace the market in the weeks and months ahead.

This is all based on my 43 years of investing experience seeing bull markets…bear markets…and everything between.

If you are curious to learn more, and want to see these lucky 13 hand selected trades, then please click the link below to get started now.

Steve Reitmeister’s Trading Plan & Top Picks >

Wishing you a world of investment success!

Steve Reitmeister…but everyone calls me Reity (pronounced “Righty”)
CEO, StockNews.com and Editor, Reitmeister Total Return


SPY shares were trading at $515.01 per share on Friday morning, down $2.99 (-0.58%). Year-to-date, SPY has gained 8.69%, versus a % rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.


About the Author: Steve Reitmeister

Inflation Not Fading Fast Enough for Stock Investors

Steve is better known to the StockNews audience as “Reity”. Not only is he the CEO of the firm, but he also shares his 40 years of investment experience in the Reitmeister Total Return portfolio. Learn more about Reity’s background, along with links to his most recent articles and stock picks.

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Learn a New Language with This Fresh Approach

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Learn a New Language with This Fresh Approach

Disclosure: Our goal is to feature products and services that we think you’ll find interesting and useful. If you purchase them, Entrepreneur may get a small share of the revenue from the sale from our commerce partners.

As exciting as it may be, learning a new language can often feel like a daunting task, with the typical endless vocabulary drills and grammar exercises. But Beelinguapp is here to change the game.

This innovative language learning app takes a fresh approach by combining audiobooks and dual-text reading to create an immersive, engaging experience. And right now, you can get a lifetime subscription to Beelinguapp—and all 14 of its languages—for just $34.99 (reg. $100) when you use code TAKE5 at checkout.

Traditional language learning methods can be time-consuming and overwhelming, especially for busy professionals. Beelinguapp offers a new, intuitive way to learn, making it easy to fit into your daily routine. Instead of memorizing endless vocabulary lists, you’ll follow along as you read and listen to a native speaker, seeing the same text in two languages side by side.

This side-by-side format is the core of Beelinguapp’s unique approach. It allows you to compare your native language to the one you’re learning, improving your understanding in real time. It’s like a language-learning karaoke, where you can follow the text in both languages while listening to a fluent speaker guide you through the pronunciation.

Beelinguapp caters to modern learners by offering 14 languages, including Spanish, English, German, French, Korean, and more. With its audiobook-style lessons and an ever-growing library of texts, you can choose from a wide variety of content—whether you’re interested in fairy tales, news articles, science papers, or novels.

This flexibility allows you to learn the way that best fits your lifestyle, all while gaining real-world conversation skills. The app provides texts at different levels, so you can start as a beginner and gradually build up to more advanced reading and listening skills.

If you’re hoping to learn a new language to help grow your business, this might be just the approach you need.

Through October 27, you can get a lifetime subscription to Beelinguapp for just $34.99 (reg. $100) when you use code TAKE5 at checkout.

StackSocial prices subject to change.

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Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang: Demand For Blackwell AI Is Insane

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Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang: Demand For Blackwell AI Is Insane

In May, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said that “the next industrial revolution has begun,” and AI will drive “significant productivity gains.” It looks like he’s right — industry demand for Nvidia’s next-generation AI chip, Blackwell, is through the roof.

“Blackwell is in full production, Blackwell is as planned, and the demand for Blackwell is insane,” Huang told CNBC on Thursday. “Everybody wants to have the most, and everybody wants to be first.”

Related: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s Biggest Worry Shows that Success Has a Downside

Nvidia first announced Blackwell in March and stated that it was the most powerful AI chip in the world with advanced security capabilities, better performance, and more memory. The biggest names in AI, including OpenAI, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Google, will use Blackwell to power their AI efforts.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang displays the new Blackwell GPU chip, left, and the Hopper GPU chip, right, in March 2024. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images

“There is currently nothing better than NVIDIA hardware for AI,” Tesla and xAI CEO Elon Musk stated, at the time.

Since the initial announcement, Blackwell has hit a few snags in production, leading to delays. Nvidia CFO Colette Kress said in late August that the company has fixed the issue and expects to ship “several billion dollars” worth of the chip in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Related: Nvidia’s Immense Market Power Is Worrying Investors — Here’s Why

The chip costs between $30,000 to $40,000 and took $10 billion to develop.

Huang said that Nvidia has updated its platform significantly with Blackwell, and intends to continue updating it. Nvidia has increased performance by two to three times from its 2022 Hopper chip to its Blackwell chip, which Huang says increases revenue for Nvidia’s customers by two to three times.

“What we’re looking at now is the beginning of the next wave of AI, the biggest wave of AI,” Huang told CNBC. “This is really about companies around the world using AI to be more productive as their digital employees and AI agents and co-pilots and however people describe them, as well as using AI, generative AI, to revolutionize the way they build their products and the products they build.”

Huang said last month that intense demand for Nvidia’s technology and software keeps him up at night. On Wednesday, Nvidia partnered with Accenture to train 30,000 of Accenture’s employees on Nvidia’s technology.

Related: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang Says Nuclear Energy ‘Is a Wonderful Way Forward’ to Keep AI Data Centers Running



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5 Work Ethic Lessons Entrepreneurs Can Learn From Elite Athletes

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5 Work Ethic Lessons Entrepreneurs Can Learn From Elite Athletes

Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.

Anyone who has found success as an athlete will tell you that sport teaches lessons that go far beyond the playing field. If you’re looking to succeed in the competitive business environment, there may be no better models than champion athletes. What is it that allows these individuals to achieve greatness? What makes someone a winner? There’s not a single answer. Rather, it’s a combination of things. We’re sharing five of them here. If you follow these lessons, you’ll be poised for a championship in the business world.

Related: 4 Productivity Tips from Extreme Athletes That Will Make Your Business Stronger

Show supreme confidence

Champions have a robust belief in themselves and their ability to succeed. Importantly, this does not mean they expect the journey to be easy. Most things worth having require tremendous effort. Champion athletes devote “blood, sweat and tears” in pursuit of excellence, and they’re willing to make the sacrifice because they know it will pay off. Self-doubters abandon the journey when it gets too hard or when they encounter a few obstacles. Champions persevere because they believe in themselves to the core. This stout self-confidence becomes self-fulfilling. When you fully believe you’ll win if you keep on grinding, you’ll out-grind your less confident competitors. Supreme confidence leads to supreme effort, and supreme effort leads to success.

Like a champion athlete, a winning entrepreneur stays committed when things are tough. Tomorrow’s industry leaders are those who will continue to refine their current pitches and marketing strategies as many times as it takes to reach a breakthrough. They will not be deterred by rejection but rather will learn from it, make adjustments, and come back stronger. This willingness to learn and improve, in fact, is another defining feature of champions.

Always look to improve

Champion athletes, while supremely confident, also possess enough humility to know they always have room to learn and grow. When they take a loss, they review the game film to identify the mistakes they’ve made and see where they need to adjust for the next time. Even when they win, they look at what they could have done better. They also seek input from others. When a coach points out a flaw in their technique, they’re receptive to the feedback and incorporate it into their training. They also look to teammates and even to opponents to learn what others are doing well.

As an entrepreneur, if you lose out on a deal or find a competitor holding a larger share of your targeted market, then look at what they are doing to succeed. Be open to learning and humble enough to seek help from others. Champions are usually their own harshest critics, and their high standards drive them to keep improving. So even when you have some successes, continue looking to level up.

Focus on what you can control

Champions do everything they can to control the variables involved in their sport. Knowing that they can’t fully control the outcome, they go all-in on what they can control, including attitude, effort, and preparation. Entrepreneurs ought to do the same by analyzing their markets, rehearsing presentations multiple times, and scouting both their competition and their potential customers. If you’re meeting with a client, study them ahead of time so you can anticipate the questions they may ask and have impressive answers prepared. Be obsessive about your preparation.

A corollary to this lesson is focusing your post-hoc explanations on what you can – or could have – controlled. After a tough loss, champions do not blame the referee. Instead, they look at what they could have done differently so the referee’s calls would not have mattered. As an entrepreneur, be cautious of attributing bad results to luck or of claiming things weren’t fair. When you do so, you lose motivation to make adjustments for next time. Instead, follow a champion’s lead and know there’s always something you could have done better.

Improvise when needed

Even as champions focus on what they can control, they also recognize that they can’t control everything. Rarely does something go exactly as planned, and the best performers adapt and improvise. Something can always go wrong, and rather than panicking when it does, winners stay confident and make the needed adjustments. Thus, even as you work to control what you can embrace the uncertainty of your sport – or your business, as the case may be.

Related: 5 Lessons Entrepreneurs Can Learn from Pro Sports Teams

Be flexible

You may have noticed that the lessons described above hold some contradictions. Champions have supreme confidence yet also believe they need to get better. They also focus on what they can control while accepting they can’t control everything. Thus, another key to success is adapting your mindset based on the situation at hand. Champions have the mental flexibility to do so seamlessly. Rather than looking for a recipe to follow every time, they embrace the fluidity required to succeed consistently.

This willingness to adapt – to possess an unfixed mindset – is the main premise of the book Extreme Balance: Paradoxical Principles That Make You a Champion, published by Entrepreneur Press. This volume, which I have co-authored with champion athlete and coach Ben Askren and successful business leader Joe De Sena, describes how various champions balance contradictory principles to succeed in their respective sports. It includes chapters such as “Thinking You’re Good Enough and Thinking You’re Never Good Enough,” and “Preparing for Everything and Expecting the Unexpected.” These sections expand upon the lessons described here – and many others – in greater depth. If you want to be a champion entrepreneur, it’s a great resource to help get you there.

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