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By taking Twitter private, Musk makes daring bet

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Most companies taken private have positive cash flows, but Twitter posted losses in the first two quarters of 2022

Most companies taken private have positive cash flows, but Twitter posted losses in the first two quarters of 2022 – Copyright AFP Hector RETAMAL

Thomas URBAIN

Elon Musk’s decision to pull Twitter off the stock market allows him to make major changes quickly, but it also takes the company more heavily into debt, a risky choice for a money-losing business.

It is a long-established strategy with notable successes and failures, from computer manufacturer Dell (a success) to toy stores Toys “R” Us (a failure).

But Twitter “is very different from a traditional buyout” of a company that delists from the market, said Steven Kaplan of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

Most such takeovers are of companies with positive cash flows, Kaplan said, but the social network is losing money — having posted losses in the first two quarters of 2022.

The equation is further complicated by Elon Musk’s $13 billion in loans, which will have to be repaid by the San Francisco company, not by the entrepreneur personally.

According to a calculation made by AFP, Twitter will have to disburse a little less than $1 billion from the first year as interest and principal, a high amount for a group whose turnover reached only $5 billion in 2021.

“That debt is tricky when you’re losing money. So there’ll be a lot of pressure to cut costs and increase revenue so that they can make debt payments,” said Kaplan, a finance professor. Otherwise, Musk will need to find funds to avoid bankruptcy.

The entrepreneur on Friday laid off about half of Twitter’s employees and is seeking new sources of revenue, including an optional subscription fee of $8 per month for those wanting a verified account.

Further development of Twitter may require an infusion of capital, more difficult to raise, in theory, by a unlisted company.

“I don’t think you can raise any more debt,” said Erik Gordon, an entrepreneurship expert at the University of Michigan Ross School of Business, but in this case “there is a Musk factor… You tweet a few times and you know, bring in the money.”

– ‘Radical changes’ –

Another idiosyncratic element is that most such deals “are initiated either by a financial logic or an industrial logic,” whereas Elon Musk “didn’t have one,” he said.

“He just was unhappy with the way Twitter was treating free speech” and concluded that he could “manage it better,” Gordon said.

As a general rule, an exit from the market is followed by “radical changes” at a company, said Sreedhar Bharath, professor of finance at Arizona State University, and those changes may not be readily apparent because the company no longer has an obligation to communicate publicly.

“The company is shielded from the punishment meted out by financial markets if they do not like the changes,” he said. “Some might say the markets have an excessive focus on the next quarter results” and managers of newly privatized firms can “pursue long-term goals” without fretting about the short term.

“But with the high public profile of Twitter, key decisions are likely to become public,” noted Jagadeesh Sivadasan of the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business. “This was evident for the post-acquisition decisions regarding firing of key officers.”

A study published in 2019 by two researchers at California State Polytechnic University that looked at nearly 500 deals between 1980 and 2006, found that about 20 percent of large companies undergoing leveraged buyouts filed for bankruptcy within 10 years, compared with two percent for a sample of other companies.

“Most of them have done better than public companies,” said Gordon, “but they don’t get a lot of publicity… The big failures get a lot of attention and create this idea that the debt kills the company.”

“Most of the time, it works which is why people keep doing it,” Gordon added.

“Musk is one of the most creative people on the planet,” able to build three totally different companies, PayPal, Tesla and SpaceX, all of which have reached more than $100 billion in valuation, Kaplan said.

“He’s a talent magnet… He’s going to attract (to Twitter) real talent that hasn’t been there for a while… I wouldn’t bet against him.”

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TikTok’s popularity complicates possible U.S. ban

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TikTok’s popularity complicates possible U.S. ban

Data: AppTopia; Note: Musically became TikTok in the U.S. on Aug. 2, 2018; Table: Axios Visuals

The U.S. government’s threat to ban TikTok takes aim at what has become the most popular smartphone app in the country.

Why it matters: TikTok’s scale presents an enormous challenge to lawmakers trying to argue that the app’s national security threat outweighs the wishes of the millions of people and businesses that use the app.

  • The TikTok app has been downloaded more times in the U.S. than any other social app since it merged with U.S. lip-syncing app Musical.ly in August 2018, according to data from Apptopia.
  • The app is expected to generate more than $11 billion in U.S. ad revenue by 2024, far outpacing rivals like Snapchat, Pinterest and Twitter, per eMarketer.
  • TikTok has also captured far more revenue than its competitors from in-app purchases, like coins that fans can use to tip their favorite creators, per Apptopia.

Driving the news: TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew plans to highlight the app’s growth in remarks prepared for his first-ever Congressional testimony on Thursday and released Tuesday night by the House committee he will address.

  • The company now counts more than 150 million monthly active users in the U.S., up from the 100 million users it first reported in 2020, executives confirmed to Axios.
  • Chew will also likely cite TikTok’s role in supporting small businesses — a message that’s also been used by tech rivals like Meta and Google when faced with regulatory pressure.
  • On Tuesday, Chew posted a TikTok video touting the app’s reach, asserting that 5 million U.S. businesses, a majority of which are small or medium-sized, use TikTok to reach their customers.

Be smart: Tuesday’s video is part of a broader consumer campaign that the short-video platform is beginning to push amid growing efforts by federal and state governments to limit or ban the app.

  • Last week, The Information reported that TikTok sent a message to some creators inviting them to join its top executives in Washington D.C. to support the company on Capitol Hill.
  • This week, TikTok is trying to appeal to users directly in the app. “Some politicians have started to talk about banning TikTok,” Chew said in the video posted Tuesday. “Now this could take TikTok away from all 150 million of you.”
  • He then directed users to leave comments about “what you want your elected representatives to know about what you love about TikTok.”

Between the lines: TikTok has ramped up its marketing efforts in recent weeks, buying prominent ad space alongside many of D.C.’s most prominent political publications.

  • While most of TikTok’s consumer messaging is focused on the ban risk facing the app, its Washington campaign has mostly focused on steps the company is taking to protect U.S. user data.

The big picture: Surveys indicate that the public remains mostly divided on whether the government should ban TikTok, but Republicans are much more likely to support a ban than Democrats.

  • Lawmakers that oppose the ban argue the government needs to find more convincing proof that TikTok is a national security threat before forcing the app’s Chinese parent ByteDance to sell to a U.S. company or face a ban.
  • Lawmakers that support moves against TikTok say the app is a threat to U.S. user data privacy because of Chinese laws that require Chinese companies to share user data with China’s government.

Yes, but: Many lawmakers fall somewhat in the middle, arguing that lawmakers need to provide the public with more clarity about the actual national security risks.

  • “If you’re going to pull the plug on one of the largest digital communities in the country, you have to make a very clear case for why you’re doing that,” Rep. Jeff Jackson (D-N.C.), an avid TikTok user, told Bloomberg.

What to watch: TikTok’s U.S. tech rivals have been waiting in the wings, hoping their TikTok clones — like Reels on both Facebook and Instagram, YouTube Shorts, and Snapchat’s Spotlight — could steal some market share from TikTok if it were banned.

  • Those services have all launched in the wake of former president Trump’s initial proposal to ban TikTok in 2020, and many have grown pretty sizable.
  • Google said last month that YouTube Shorts has crossed 50 billion daily views.
  • Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said last month that Reels plays across Facebook and Instagram “have more than doubled over the last year,” and people sharing Reels “has more than doubled on both apps in just the last 6 months.”

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WhatsApp Adds New Group Chat Controls, Additional Context Around Group Membership

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WhatsApp Adds New Group Chat Controls, Additional Context Around Group Membership

WhatsApp’s adding some new control options for group chats, which will provide more capacity to manage who can, and can’t, join a group, while it’s also providing new insights into groups in-common with other users, to provide more context for connection and discovery.

First off, on group controls – WhatsApp’s adding a simplified control panel UI to approve new chat members.

As you can see in this example, the new format will enable chat admins to approve and reject group chat applicants, while it will also show people that have been previously approved or rejected.

That could make it much easier to manage your group chats, and ensure you’re on top of all participating members – which will be handy for Communities, which WhatsApp added back in November, and enable users to connect around specific topics.

The idea is that this will expand WhatsApp usage beyond private chats, and facilitate a wider range of discussion. And with more social media engagement switching to private chats, it’s another means for Meta to align with that shift, and keep users engaged.

It’s a simple addition, in broader context, and could be beneficial for those trying to keep tabs on their group membership.

WhatsApp’s also adding a new ‘groups in common’ display, to help users glean more context about other members.

WhatsApp groups update

As per WhatsApp:

“With the growth of Communities and their larger groups, we want to make it easy to know which groups you have in common with someone. Whether you’re trying to remember the name of a group you know you share with someone or you want to see the groups you’re both in, you can now easily search a contact’s name to see your groups in common.”

The display could also assist in group discovery, helping you find more relevant Communities that you might also want to join to engage in related topics.

As noted, with more online interactions switching to private chats, and away from public posting on social platforms, Meta’s now trying to align with that change, and provide more ways to keep users engaged, and help brands also meet them where they’re active.

WhatsApp, which has seen big growth in US, is now a larger part of the equation, and with more people leaning into more private discussion spaces, it makes sense for Meta to provide more tools to facilitate such.

The next step is monetizing WhatsApp, which remains a work in progress – but Meta is indeed making progress on this front as well.

As such, group chats could be another way to help boost exposure for brand functionality in the app, which is why Meta will be keen to build on these tools wherever it can.

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LinkedIn Creates Profile Summaries, Job Listings Via Generative AI 03/22/2023

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LinkedIn Creates Profile Summaries, Job Listings Via Generative AI 03/22/2023

Microsoft-owned business and
employment-focused social platform LinkedIn is adding a new ChatGPT-powered tool Premium subscribers can access to create personalized writing suggestions for sections of their LinkedIn profile, as
well as other AI integrations.

LinkedIn Premium subscribers now have the option to “Enhance” their profile via AI-drafted options for the …



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