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How To Use Google Ads Keyword Forecast Tool For Predictive Keyword Research

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How To Use Google Ads Keyword Forecast Tool For Predictive Keyword Research

The Google Ads Keyword Planner is a useful tool; there’s no doubt about that.

Whether you’re starting your first Google Ads campaign or your hundredth campaign, having a plan or forecast is critical.

But have you ever thought of using the Keyword Planner as a way to forecast trends in the future?

Staying ahead of the curve by predicting demand can set you apart in any competitive market.

In this post, I’ll walk through how to use the Keyword Planner tool and how to use it so your PPC and SEO efforts can work together.

What Is The Google Ads Keyword Forecast Tool?

It’s one thing to know what’s trending now.

That’s a valuable asset for any digital marketer.

But what about what will be trending tomorrow or farther into the future? How do you even predict that?

The Google Ads Keyword Forecast tool does just that.

It’s an awesome option for anyone looking to up their SEM and SEO game by narrowing down the future potential for any keywords or groups of keywords.

According to Google, it updates its forecasts daily with data from up to 10 days past.

This data includes market changes that occurred throughout this time.

It also considers seasonality, so you’re not confused by natural market fluctuations.

In short, Google Ads Keyword Forecast is a pretty cool tool.

How (& Why) To Use The Forecast Tool

The forecast tool is a multifaceted part of Google Ads, and it just goes to show how useful the Ads platform is as a whole.

It goes well beyond today’s data and delivers insights for the near future.

It can even help inform other future efforts or initiatives, as well as benefitting other channels like SEO.

So, what does this forecast tell you?

The forecast tool will help you figure out how your keywords will perform in optimal settings.

You can:

  • Change your maximum cost per click (CPC) or bidding strategy depending on your budget.
  • View a chart of your estimated performance.
  • See projections for individual keywords or grouped keywords.
  • View how these estimates change when you adjust your max CPC or bidding strategy.

Your forecast has a date range, and you can change the time frame to see how it affects your forecast.

There are two ways to see forecasts on Google Ads, so let’s break down the Google Ads Keyword Forecast tool for you, step by step.

How To Use It For Forecasting

Within the Google Ads Keyword Planner, you’ll find something called a forecast.

Screenshot from Google Ads, August 2022

Instead of clicking Discover new keywords, you’ll click Get search volume and forecasts.

google ads forecastingScreenshot from Google Ads, August 2022

Once you’re here, you can enter an individual keyword or a group of keywords that are separated by commas or line breaks.

You can also upload a spreadsheet file to quickly transport keywords into the forecasting tool (as any SEO or SEM professional ought to know, there’s nothing wrong with a good shortcut!).

Once you enter your keywords and click Get Started, you’ll come across a page with a few tabs on the left-hand side of Google Ads.

You'll come across a page with a few tabs on the left-hand side of Google Ads.Screenshot from Google Ads, August 2022

The three tabs are Forecasts, Saved keywords, and Negative keywords.

For the forecasting side of things, you’ll obviously want to stay under the first tab.

You’ll see a selection of forecast data based on the keywords you entered.

Automatically, Google Ads will forecast on a defaulted monthly basis:

  • Clicks if the keyword triggers your ad.
  • Impressions.
  • Cost or your average projected spend.
  • Click-through rate (CTR).
  • Average CPC or the average amount you may pay for an ad click.
  • Conversions.
  • Average cost per acquisition (CPA).

Here’s an example of what the aggregated forecast looks like based on your inputs:

Example of aggregated monthly Google Ads keyword forecast.Screenshot from Google Ads, August 2022

You can update the date settings if you’re looking for a shorter or longer period.

In the end, you’ll be left with a pretty nifty graph and data chart that showcases future predictions (or forecasts) for your selected keywords.

This helps you determine the best plan of action for campaigns to come and even lets you know if you should adjust existing campaigns based on consumer queries and behavior.

Remember that the numbers you see associated with each metric are what you’re likely to achieve for your keywords or a group of keywords based on your ad spend.

These numbers will change if your budget changes, proving just how holistic Google’s approach really is.

However, Google clearly shows that spending more doesn’t necessarily equate to better conversions.

When you’re done, take one or all of these steps:

  • Download your forecast. To do this, select the download button on the page.
  • Share your keyword plan with team members. You can do this by clicking the three dots beside your plan and editing the sharing settings (under Edit sharing).
  • Think about how this fits into your paid media, SEO, and content marketing roadmap.

Is This The Only Way To See Forecasts On Google Ads?

Short answer: No, it’s not!

Long answer: There’s another way, and you can find it by clicking Discover new keywords instead of Get search volume and forecasts at the start.

When you use Discover new keywords, you can:

  • Discover new ideas for keywords.
  • Edit an existing list of keywords based on what the data shows.

But in addition to these, you can also see a performance forecast once keywords are on your plan.

As an optional measure, you can create a new campaign based on positive forecasts.

Or, you can use them to beef up your existing campaigns.

If you want to add keywords to your plan from Discover new keywords so you can forecast their performance, you can follow a few simple steps:

  • Tick the box next to each keyword you want to add. Then click the dropdown option Add to plan.
  • Choose either Add to plan or Add to existing campaign.
  • Click the dropdown option Adding to [name of ad group]. Select a match type using the dropdown option Broad match.
  • Select Add keywords, and voila!

How To See Keyword Trends In Google Ads

The best way to see keyword trends in Google Ads is within the “Saved keywords” section from the left-hand navigation.

How To See Keyword Trends In Google AdsScreenshot from Google Ads, August 2022

Click the Saved keywords tab to view:

  • Average monthly searches.
  • Three-month change.
  • YoY change.
  • Competition (low, medium, or high).
  • Ad impression share.
  • Top-of-page bid (low and high ranges).

An example of how this would look in Google Ads is below:

An example of how this would look in Google AdsScreenshot from Google Ads, August 2022

Combine this historical data with forecasted projections from your Google Ads account, and you’ll have a comprehensive picture of keywords for your industry!

Note: While the Google Ads Keyword Forecast tool accounts for things like bid, budget, and seasonality, historical data doesn’t. Just keep this in mind during your comparisons.

How Google Ads Keyword Forecast Tool Fits In With The Overall Paid Media Mix

Paid media is best served holistically. PPC should not be operating in a silo.

While the Google Ads Keyword Forecast tool should be a well-used component in your marketing repertoire, it’s not your only friend.

By using all these tools combined, you can craft a well-planned, holistic marketing strategy.

Identifying core keywords and trends can help inform marketing areas such as:

  • PPC strategy and realistic budget.
  • Content and copy creation.
  • On-page SEO.

Fuse the Google Ads Forecast tool with other tools, like:

Google Trends

Search traffic by any given term or company.

You can compare terms and entities, plus visualize data by location, related topics, and breakout terms.

Use Google Trends to answer the question: What are some recent changes in the landscape?

google trendsScreenshot from Google Trends, August 2022

Google Benchmark Report

This report lives inside Google Analytics.

The Benchmark Report looks at your individual traffic and compares it to the industry benchmark.

Remember that this benchmark comes from the overall industry, not necessarily a particular niche within that sector.

You’ll see how you stack up against national players in the game.

The most useful part of this report for you is comparing your own historical and current data, so you can see just how far you’ve come.

Google Ads Automated Insights

This is a recent development from Google.

Using the power of Google Trends, it imports relevant data into your Google Ads account.

With that data in hand, you can see breakout terms and their forecasted growth.

It’s a super-powerful addition that can potentially improve business and marketing planning by a landslide.

If there were ever a way to slide into a new category before the competition, this is it.

Semrush Data

Learn today’s keyword search volume and compare it monthly for the last six months.

You’ll know what the search volume used to look like and use that data to determine what keywords you should be focusing on now and in the future.

Their keyword planner also offers forecasts, so that’s another tool you can add to your toolbox.

Google Intelligence Events

Using artificial intelligence, Google Intelligence Events tells you if there’s a marked change (either up or down) in your site traffic.

You can even select your own events to automate tailored insight.

A cohesive combination of tools will help you boost your business like the pro you are.

Keep in mind these are just a handful of tools — you’ll find plenty more to back you up along the way.

Conclusion

The Google Ads Keyword Planner Forecast tool has a wealth of information.

Whether you’re looking to add new keywords to your campaign mix or understand future trends for your existing campaigns, this tool has it all.

Not only are the forecast trends important, but what’s even more important is how you use the data.

Forecasting trends helps more than just identifying competition and potential budget; when coupled with other tools, it helps you create a powerful, holistic marketing plan.

Use these tools to help you stay ahead of the game and keep a leg up on your competitors.

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Featured Image: fizkes/Shutterstock



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Technical SEO Checklist for 2024: A Comprehensive Guide

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Technical SEO Checklist 2024 Comprehensive Strategies

Technical SEO Checklist 2024 Comprehensive Strategies

With Google getting a whopping total of six algorithmic updates and four core updates in 2023, you can bet the search landscape is more complicated (and competitive) to navigate nowadays.

To succeed in SEO this year, you will need to figure out what items to check and optimize to ensure your website stays visible. And if your goal is to not just make your website searchable, but have it rank at the top of search engine results, this technical SEO checklist for 2024 is essential.

Webmaster’s Note: This is part one of our three-part SEO checklist for 2024. I also have a longer guide on advanced technical SEO, which covers best practices and how to troubleshoot and solve common technical issues with your websites.

Technical SEO Essentials for 2024

Technical SEO refers to optimizations that are primarily focused on helping search engines access, crawl, interpret, and index your website without any issues. It lays the foundation for your site to be properly understood and served up by search engines to users.

1. Website Speed Optimization

A site’s loading speed is a significant ranking factor for search engines like Google, which prioritize user experience. Faster websites generally provide a more pleasant user experience, leading to increased engagement and improved conversion rates.

Server Optimization

Often, the reason why your website is loading slowly is because of the server it’s hosted on. It’s important to choose a high-quality server that ensures quick loading times from the get-go so you skip the headache that is server optimization.

Google recommends keeping your server response time under 200ms. To check your server’s response time, you need to know your website’s IP address. Once you have that, use your command prompt.

In the window that appears, type ping, followed by your website’s IP address. Press enter and the window should show how long it took your server to respond. 

If you find that your server goes above the recommended 200ms loading time, here’s what you need to check:

  1. Collect the data from your server and identify what is causing your response time to increase. 
  2. Based on what is causing the problem, you will need to implement server-side optimizations. This guide on how to reduce initial server response times can help you here.
  3. Measure your server response times after optimization to use as a benchmark. 
  4. Monitor any regressions after optimization.

If you work with a hosting service, then you should contact them when you need to improve server response times. A good hosting provider should have the right infrastructure, network connections, server hardware, and support services to accommodate these optimizations. They may also offer hosting options if your website needs more server resources to run smoothly.

Website Optimization

Aside from your server, there are a few other reasons that your website might be loading slowly. 

Here are some practices you can do:

  1. Compressing images to decrease file sizes without sacrificing quality
  2. Minimizing the code, eliminating unnecessary spaces, comments, and indentation.
  3. Using caching to store some data locally in a user’s browser to allow for quicker loading on subsequent visits.
  4. Implementing Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) to distribute the load, speeding up access for users situated far from the server.
  5. Lazy load your web pages to prioritize loading the objects or resources only your users need.

A common tool to evaluate your website speed is Google’s PageSpeed Insights or Google Lighthouse. Both tools can analyze the content of your website and then generate suggestions to improve its overall loading speed, all for free. There are also some third-party tools, like GTMetrix, that you could use as well.

Here’s an example of one of our website’s speeds before optimization. It’s one of the worst I’ve seen, and it was affecting our SEO.

slow site speed score from GTMetrixslow site speed score from GTMetrix

So we followed our technical SEO checklist. After working on the images, removing render-blocking page elements, and minifying code, the score greatly improved — and we saw near-immediate improvements in our page rankings. 

site speed optimization results from GTMetrixsite speed optimization results from GTMetrix

That said, playing around with your server settings, coding, and other parts of your website’s backend can mess it up if you don’t know what you’re doing. I suggest backing up all your files and your database before you start working on your website speed for that reason. 

2. Mobile-First Indexing

Mobile-first Indexing is a method used by Google that primarily uses the mobile version of the content for indexing and ranking. 

It’s no secret that Google places a priority on the mobile users’ experience, what with mobile-first indexing being used. Beyond that, optimizing your website for mobile just makes sense, given that a majority of people now use their phones to search online.

This change signifies that a fundamental shift in your approach to your website development and design is needed, and it should also be part of your technical SEO checklist.

  1. Ensuring the mobile version of your site contains the same high-quality, rich content as the desktop version.
  2. Make sure metadata is present on both versions of your site.
  3. Verify that structured data is present on both versions of your site.

Tools like Google’s mobile-friendly test can help you measure how effectively your mobile site is performing compared to your desktop versions, and to other websites as well.

3. Crawlability & Indexing Check

Always remember that crawlability and Indexing are the cornerstones of SEO. Crawlability refers to a search engine’s ability to access and crawl through a website’s content. Indexing is how search engines organize information after a crawl and before presenting results.

  1. Utilizing a well-structured robots.txt file to communicate with web crawlers about which of your pages should not be processed or scanned.
  2. Using XML sitemaps to guide search engines through your site’s content and ensure that all valuable content is found and indexed. There are several CMS plugins you can use to generate your sitemap.
  3. Ensuring that your website has a logical structure with a clear hierarchy, helps both users and bots navigate to your most important pages easily. 

Google Search Console is the tool you need to use to ensure your pages are crawled and indexed by Google. It also provides reports that identify any problems that prevent crawlers from indexing your pages. 

4. Structured Data Markup

Structured Data Markup is a coding language that communicates website information in a more organized and richer format to search engines. This plays a strategic role in the way search engines interpret and display your content, enabling enhanced search results through “rich snippets” such as stars for reviews, prices for products, or images for recipes.

Doing this allows search engines to understand and display extra information directly in the search results from it.

Key Takeaway

With all the algorithm changes made in 2023, websites need to stay adaptable and strategic to stay at the top of the search results page. Luckily for you, this technical SEO checklist for 2024 can help you do just that. Use this as a guide to site speed optimization, indexing, and ensuring the best experience for mobile and desktop users.

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Why Google Seems To Favor Big Brands & Low-Quality Content

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Why Google Seems To Favor Big Brands & Low-Quality Content

Many people are convinced that Google shows a preference for big brands and ranking low quality content, something that many feel has become progressively worse. This may not be a matter of perception, something is going on, nearly everyone has an anecdote of poor quality search results. The possible reasons for it are actually quite surprising.

Google Has Shown Favoritism In The Past

This isn’t the first time that Google’s search engine results pages (SERPs) have shown a bias that favored big brand websites. During the early years of Google’s algorithm it was obvious that sites with a lot of PageRank ranked for virtually anything they wanted.

For example, I remember a web design company that built a lot of websites, creating a network of backlinks, raising their PageRank to a remarkable level normally seen only in big corporate sites like IBM. As a consequence they ranked for the two-word keyword phrase, Web Design and virtually every other variant like Web Design + [any state in the USA].

Everyone knew that websites with a PageRank of 10, the highest level shown on Google’s toolbar, practically had a free pass in the SERPs, resulting in big brand sites outranking more relevant webpages. It didn’t go unnoticed when Google eventually adjusted their algorithm to fix this issue.

The point of this anecdote is to point out an instance of where Google’s algorithm unintentionally created a bias that favored big brands.

Here are are other  algorithm biases that publishers exploited:

  • Top 10 posts
  • Longtail “how-to” articles
  • Misspellings
  • Free Widgets in footer that contained links (always free to universities!)

Big Brands And Low Quality Content

There are two things that have been a constant for all of Google’s history:

  • Low quality content
  • Big brands crowding out small independent publishers

Anyone that’s ever searched for a recipe knows that the more general the recipe the lower the quality of recipe that gets ranked. Search for something like cream of chicken soup and the main ingredient for nearly every recipe is two cans of chicken soup.

A search for Authentic Mexican Tacos results in recipes with these ingredients:

  • Soy sauce
  • Ground beef
  • “Cooked chicken”
  • Taco shells (from the store!)
  • Beer

Not all recipe SERPs are bad. But some of the more general recipes Google ranks are so basic that a hobo can cook them on a hotplate.

Robin Donovan (Instagram), a cookbook author and online recipe blogger observed:

“I think the problem with google search rankings for recipes these days (post HCU) are much bigger than them being too simple.

The biggest problem is that you get a bunch of Reddit threads or sites with untested user-generated recipes, or scraper sites that are stealing recipes from hardworking bloggers.

In other words, content that is anything but “helpful” if what you want is a tested and well written recipe that you can use to make something delicious.”

Explanations For Why Google’s SERPs Are Broken

It’s hard not to get away from the perception that Google’s rankings for a variety of topics always seem to default to big brand websites and low quality webpages.

Small sites grow to become big brands that dominate the SERPs, it happens. But that’s the thing, even when a small site gets big, it’s now another big brand dominating the SERPs.

Typical explanations for poor SERPs:

  • It’s a conspiracy to increase ad clicks
  • Content itself these days are low quality across the board
  • Google doesn’t have anything else to rank
  • It’s the fault of SEOs
  • Affiliates
  • Poor SERPs is Google’s scheme to drive more ad clicks
  • Google promotes big brands because [insert your conspiracy]

So what’s going on?

People Love Big Brands & Garbage Content

The recent Google anti-trust lawsuit exposed the importance of the Navboost algorithm signals as a major ranking factor. Navboost is an algorithm that interprets user engagement signals to understand what topics a webpage is relevant for, among other things.

The idea of using engagement signals as an indicator of what users expect to see makes sense. After all, Google is user-centric and who better to decide what’s best for users than the users themselves, right?

Well, consider that arguably the the biggest and most important song of 1991, Smells Like Teen Spirt by Nirvana, didn’t make the Billboard top 100 for that year. Michael Bolton and Rod Stewart made the list twice, with Rod Stewart top ranked for a song called “The Motown Song” (anyone remember that one?)

Nirvana didn’t make the charts until the next year…

My opinion, given that we know that user interactions are a strong ranking signal, is that Google’s search rankings follow a similar pattern related to users’ biases.

People tend to choose what they know. It’s called a Familiarity Bias.

Consumers have a habit of choosing things that are familiar over those that are unfamiliar. This preference shows up in product choices that prefer brands, for example.

Behavioral scientist, Jason Hreha, defines Familiarity Bias like this:

“The familiarity bias is a phenomenon in which people tend to prefer familiar options over unfamiliar ones, even when the unfamiliar options may be better. This bias is often explained in terms of cognitive ease, which is the feeling of fluency or ease that people experience when they are processing familiar information. When people encounter familiar options, they are more likely to experience cognitive ease, which can make those options seem more appealing.”

Except for certain queries (like those related to health), I don’t think Google makes an editorial decision to certain kinds of websites, like brands.

Google uses many signals for ranking. But Google is strongly user focused.

I believe it’s possible that strong user preferences can carry a more substantial weight than Reviews System signals. How else to explain why Google seemingly has a bias for big brand websites with fake reviews rank better than honest independent review sites?

It’s not like Google’s algorithms haven’t created poor search results in the past.

  • Google’s Panda algorithm was designed to get rid of a bias for cookie cutter content.
  • The Reviews System is a patch to fix Google’s bias for content that’s about reviews but aren’t necessarily reviews.

If Google has systems for catching low quality sites that their core algorithm would otherwise rank, why do big brands and poor quality content still rank?

I believe the answer is that is what users prefer to see those sites, as indicated by user interaction signals.

The big question to ask is whether Google will continue to rank what users biases and inexperience trigger user satisfaction signals.  Or will Google continue serving the sugar-frosted bon-bons that users crave?

Should Google make the choice to rank quality content at the risk that users find it too hard to understand?

Or should publishers give up and focus on creating for the lowest common denominator like the biggest popstars do?



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Google Announces Gemma: Laptop-Friendly Open Source AI

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Google Announces Gemma: Laptop-Friendly Open Source AI

Google released an open source large language model based on the technology used to create Gemini that is powerful yet lightweight, optimized to be used in environments with limited resources like on a laptop or cloud infrastructure.

Gemma can be used to create a chatbot, content generation tool and pretty much anything else that a language model can do. This is the tool that SEOs have been waiting for.

It is released in two versions, one with two billion parameters (2B) and another one with seven billion parameters (7B). The number of parameters indicates the model’s complexity and potential capability. Models with more parameters can achieve a better understanding of language and generate more sophisticated responses, but they also require more resources to train and run.

The purpose of releasing Gemma is to democratize access to state of the art Artificial Intelligence that is trained to be safe and responsible out of the box, with a toolkit to further optimize it for safety.

Gemma By DeepMind

The model is developed to be lightweight and efficient which makes it ideal for getting it into the hands of more end users.

Google’s official announcement noted the following key points:

  • “We’re releasing model weights in two sizes: Gemma 2B and Gemma 7B. Each size is released with pre-trained and instruction-tuned variants.
  • A new Responsible Generative AI Toolkit provides guidance and essential tools for creating safer AI applications with Gemma.
  • We’re providing toolchains for inference and supervised fine-tuning (SFT) across all major frameworks: JAX, PyTorch, and TensorFlow through native Keras 3.0.
  • Ready-to-use Colab and Kaggle notebooks, alongside integration with popular tools such as Hugging Face, MaxText, NVIDIA NeMo and TensorRT-LLM, make it easy to get started with Gemma.
  • Pre-trained and instruction-tuned Gemma models can run on your laptop, workstation, or Google Cloud with easy deployment on Vertex AI and Google Kubernetes Engine (GKE).
  • Optimization across multiple AI hardware platforms ensures industry-leading performance, including NVIDIA GPUs and Google Cloud TPUs.
  • Terms of use permit responsible commercial usage and distribution for all organizations, regardless of size.”

Analysis Of Gemma

According to an analysis by an Awni Hannun, a machine learning research scientist at Apple, Gemma is optimized to be highly efficient in a way that makes it suitable for use in low-resource environments.

Hannun observed that Gemma has a vocabulary of 250,000 (250k) tokens versus 32k for comparable models. The importance of that is that Gemma can recognize and process a wider variety of words, allowing it to handle tasks with complex language. His analysis suggests that this extensive vocabulary enhances the model’s versatility across different types of content. He also believes that it may help with math, code and other modalities.

It was also noted that the “embedding weights” are massive (750 million). The embedding weights are a reference to the parameters that help in mapping words to representations of their meanings and relationships.

An important feature he called out is that the embedding weights, which encode detailed information about word meanings and relationships, are used not just in processing input part but also in generating the model’s output. This sharing improves the efficiency of the model by allowing it to better leverage its understanding of language when producing text.

For end users, this means more accurate, relevant, and contextually appropriate responses (content) from the model, which improves its use in conetent generation as well as for chatbots and translations.

He tweeted:

“The vocab is massive compared to other open source models: 250K vs 32k for Mistral 7B

Maybe helps a lot with math / code / other modalities with a heavy tail of symbols.

Also the embedding weights are big (~750M params), so they get shared with the output head.”

In a follow-up tweet he also noted an optimization in training that translates into potentially more accurate and refined model responses, as it enables the model to learn and adapt more effectively during the training phase.

He tweeted:

“The RMS norm weight has a unit offset.

Instead of “x * weight” they do “x * (1 + weight)”.

I assume this is a training optimization. Usually the weight is initialized to 1 but likely they initialize close to 0. Similar to every other parameter.”

He followed up that there are more optimizations in data and training but that those two factors are what especially stood out.

Designed To Be Safe And Responsible

An important key feature is that it is designed from the ground up to be safe which makes it ideal for deploying for use. Training data was filtered to remove personal and sensitive information. Google also used reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) to train the model for responsible behavior.

It was further debugged with manual re-teaming, automated testing and checked for capabilities for unwanted and dangerous activities.

Google also released a toolkit for helping end-users further improve safety:

“We’re also releasing a new Responsible Generative AI Toolkit together with Gemma to help developers and researchers prioritize building safe and responsible AI applications. The toolkit includes:

  • Safety classification: We provide a novel methodology for building robust safety classifiers with minimal examples.
  • Debugging: A model debugging tool helps you investigate Gemma’s behavior and address potential issues.
  • Guidance: You can access best practices for model builders based on Google’s experience in developing and deploying large language models.”

Read Google’s official announcement:

Gemma: Introducing new state-of-the-art open models

Featured Image by Shutterstock/Photo For Everything



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